Probabilistic Production Simulation And Evaluation For Power System With Renewable Energy

In recent years,the large-scale grid integration of new energy plays a very important role in developing low-carbon power,easing pressure of energy supply and improving the living environment of human beings.However,the production and operation of the power system are facing new challenges because of the volatility and the unpredictable nature of the new energy power generation.How to accurately assess its impact on the power system is of great significance.Therefore,in this paper probabilistic production simulation based on extensive-form representation is proposed in low-carbon contextin,this method can not only calculates the cost of power generation and the reliability index of power system,but also to evaluates low-carbon benefits precisely of the impact by low-carbon energy.At first,the research on the distribution characteristics of wind speed and light intensity is based on the concept of time sequence.The output of wind turbine simulation is base on each day of the month at the same time as the Weibull distribution of wind,as to construct multi scenario probability model of wind power output;the photovoltaic power output simulation is based on Beta distribution characteristics of light intensity,as to construct the output power of photovoltaic field sequential simulation by using Monte Carlo method,and the fault element set contains 5 derating capacity state and the corresponding probability model of photovoltaic system.In this paper,extensive-form is using for representiong of state distribution of power system.The production simulation of power system with the time-series load can give the reliability index such as the probability of power shortage and the lack of electricity,and economic indicators such as the unit power generation costs and fuel costs.For the conventional theoretical methodologies could not evaluate low-carbon benefits precisely,the unit's loading-probability is introduced for calculation the number of units start-up and shut-down,thus the algorithm can evaluate negative effects on low-carbon benefits of the power System include green energy.Meanwhile,the maintenance of generating units is considered to ensure the optimality of the simulation result,and by means of the equalization round-of to effectively restrain the explosion of state number.Finally,a numerical examples are provided to verify the effectiveness and correctness of the proposed algorithm.The calculation shows that the new energy replacing the conventional unit power can effectively reduce carbon emissions system,while increasing the peak pressure of power system and the frequent times start-up and shut-down of conventional unit.The start-up and shut-down statistics obtained by this method can provide an effective basis for the traditional energy management and the formulation of scheduling scheme.