Conformity Violation And Its Influencing Factors At Signalized Intersections

Illegal crossing at signal intersection has been an important and hot issue in the field of traffic engineering research,in the current study,Most of research is mainly based on the personal characteristics,road and traffic environment and other factors,the potential group characteristics are less considered.However,in our country,Phenomenon of following the group behavior called "Chinese type crossing" is prominent,base on which,this paper selects Beijing City's typical intersections and use field research and modeling methods to focus on the analysis of influence of the potential group conformity factor to pedestrians and non-motorized vehicles just when they arrived,waiting and leave.It is necessary to systematic study the various group characteristics variable which effects on pedestrians and non-motorized vehicles crossing behavior,construct illegal high risks mathematical model of immediately violations and conformity violations,which can reveals the key influencing factors of high risk violations,as well as the interaction between pedestrians and non-motorized vehicles.The main research work of this paper is as follows:(1)Analysis on the influence of group characteristic variables on the crossing behavior.The group characteristic variables mainly include the number of people who are waiting and crossing at the arrival time,the new increase numbers of waiting and crossing at waiting time,and as well as the number of people who are waiting and crossing before leaving.Through basic statistical methods,the results show that it is difficult to immediately cross when it has more pedestrians or less surrounding numbers;The rate of non-motor vehicles which do not wait for immediate violations is higher when there are more surrounding numbers.The conformity violations of pedestrians and non-motors who are Waiting have relationship with the number of waiting and crossing when they are waiting or leaving,pedestrian proactive violation has relationship with the waiting numbers before one is crossing,non-motor vehicles proactive violation have larger relationship with the new creasing waiting numbers crossing numbers of people when one is waiting.(2)Modeling Logit regression impact of violated behavior.First of all,It need to build up the two Logistic regression model based on the behavior of waiting and on wait for immediate violations,the result shows that when just arrived at the intersection,pedestrians is more fewer easier not to wait for immediate violations when there are less waiting numbers or more crossing numbers of pedestrians;non-motorized vehicles are easier not to wait for immediate violations when there are more crossing surrounding numbers.Next,build up the multinomial Logistic regression model of pedestrians and non-motorized vehicles whose behavior are conformity violation,active violation and no violation,the result of model shows that:the conformity violation of pedestrians has a significant relationship with the waiting numbers and crossing numbers of pedestrians before one is leaving,The active violation rate ofpedestrians has a significant relationship with waiting numbers when one is crossing;non-motorized vehicle conformity violation rate is closely related to the waiting numbers and crossing numbers of non-motorized vehicle when one is crossing,The active violation rate of non-motorized vehicle has a significant relationship with new increase waiting numbers and crossing numbers when one is waiting,as well as the crossing numbers of non-motorized vehicle when one is crossing.(3)Construction and analysis of the Competitive Risk model of the people crossing with conformity violation and active violation.First,the KM nonparametric method is used to estimate and compare the patience time before crossing the intersection of pedestrians and non-motor vehicles as well as conformity violation and active violation behavior.Secondly,we construct the Competitive Risk model of pedestrians,non-motor vehicle and the overall sample,the results show that the conformity violation of pedestrians has a significant relationship with the total number of people when one is crossing,and non-motor vehicle conformity behavior has a relationship with the surrounding numbers when one is arrival and leaving the intersection,the general conformity behavior has a relationship with numbers of people when one is just arrived,waiting for the process and before crossing.