Research On China Highspped Railway Express Demand Forecast And Organization Mode Optimization

With the transformation of economic structure in our country,the transport demand of High value"white goods" increases rapidly.In order to increase the freight market share,China Railway Corporation initiated Railway Freight reform in 2014,and launched the "China Railway Express" and other high-speed rail freight products to provide fast,efficient and safe transport of products for shippers.At present,China's high-speed rail freight industry is still in the market developing period,which makes it difficult to transport the high-value goods appropriately.Lacking of high-speed railway freight equipment and transport optimization organization is the main reason for low High-speed railway freight market share.Compared with other transport modes,high-speed railway is labeled with "high-speed,high-security and high punctuality" and other features,which ensure the quick delivery of goods to the destination in a specified time.Given to this circumstance,this paper took High-speed railway freight organization as object and done the research as follows:(1)High-speed railway freight organization system analysis.According to the current situation and research on of high-speed railway freight,there are four ways to organize high-speed railway freight,which are High-speed railway freight train,High-speed railway confirming train,High-speed railway hang train and High-speed railway carrying train.This paper summarized their technical and economic indicators and analyzed Workflow and equipment.(2)SD freight demand Forecast model in OD.After setting the VENSIM model to predict the city's high-value freight demand based on system dynamics theory,the Logit model and inter-city freight attracting strength model were used to predict the demand in OD.(3)Transport organization combination optimization model.According to predicted freight demand,the optimal transport organization combination is obtained under the constraint of the railway freight capacity,the transport time of the shipper and the loading limit of the transport organization mode,which can get the highest income for Railway Company and the minimum general cost of goods for shippers.(4)Case study.Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway was chosen to be the analysis object.According to the relevant data,this paper predicted the demands and obtained the optimized combination.