Supply And Demand Prediction And Sustainable Utilization Of Water Resources In Shenzhen

As the basic natural resources and strategic economic resources, water resources are not only the essential control factors for ecological environment, but also the very important guarantees to maintain the human environment. With the rapid economic development and urbanization process, people’s demand for water resources is getting larger, which leads to an increasingly sharp contradiction between the supply and demand of water resources and causes more common phenomenon of water shortages. Moreover, it has already affected the normal life of the residents of the city and the development of social economy. As the problem has become one of the highest attention problems in all sectors of the community and the core of water resources problem is the supply and demand relation nowadays, reasonable and scientific supply and demand forecasting is an effective measure to realize the rational and sustainable use of urban water resources.Based on the analysis of the research status of supply and demand forecasting and the sustainable utilization research at home and abroad, this paper studies a further research on supply and demand forecasting of urban water resources on the basis of system concept. By using regression analysis, grey prediction method and BP network model for comprehensive forecasting of water demand, the paper puts forwards the method of using entropy method to obtain weighted coefficient and then establishes a combination of forecasting model of water demand based on entropy method, which has the characters of fitting well, having strong stability and high forecasting precision that provides technical support for water resources analysis of Shenzhen.Aiming at the natural, social economy and the basic situation of the water resources in Shenzhen, the main factors influenced on water demand is forecasted and analyzed, which include the population of Shenzhen, GDP and per capita disposable income and so on. Taking2015,2020and2030as level years, the water requirement pattern of living, production and ecological environment are discussed and the total water demand is forecasted by using the combination of forecasting model of water demand that is based on entropy method. The total available water supply in Shenzhen is forecasted based on the analysis of available water supply of surface water, underground water and other water. Combined with the corresponding results of supply and demand water forecast, the analysis of supply and demand balance of each level year is performed. Finally, based on the theory of sustainable utilization of water resources and according to the analysis for balance scheme of supply and demand, this paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions on easing or improving the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in Shenzhen combined with the actual situation of water resources and social economic. Based on following the natural and economic laws and maintaining the ecological system, the goal of these countermeasures and suggestions is to realize the balance of supply and demand of water resources.