Dam Risk Consequence Evaluation Model Based On Set Pair Analysis

Dam risk consequence analysis is extremely important in the dam risk management theory but is relatively backward.The evaluation content mainly includes the loss of life,economic losses,social impact,environmental impact and risk consequence comprehensive evaluation.At present,the research on life loss and economic loss of dam break is relatively mature,but the research on the social impact,environmental impact and risk consequence comprehensive evaluation is obviously insufficient.This paper relies on the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NO.51679222,51379192),in view of complexity,fuzziness and uncertainty of dam risk consequences,introducing the theory of Set Pair Analysis to study the social impact,environmental impact and risk consequence comprehensive evaluation.The Work and results are as follows:(1)Characteristic analysis of dam risk consequence and set pair analysis theory.Summarize the current situation of domestic and abroad,analyzes the main characteristics of dam risk consequence assessment.Based on the study about theory characteristics,applicable scope and the application background of the method of set pair analysis,complete the study about the set pair analysis theory applied to the consequences of dam risk assessment analysis.(2)Dam break social impact assessment.According to the basic characteristics of Dam-break social impact,establish a Dam-break social impact assessment index system.The system includes 6 indicators: engineering level,risk population,the total economic output,urban grade,important facilities,cultural heritage.And set the five levels of evaluation criteria of the Dam-break social impact.In view of the complexity and uncertainty of the Dam-break social impact,this paper establishes the model of Dam-break social impact assessment based on set pair analysis.The evaluation model was applied to Liujiatai reservoir dam failure events.The evaluation result was compared with another result based on fuzzy gray theory evaluation model.(3)Dam break environmental impact assessment.Combined with the relevant laws and regulations,on the basis of previous studies,establish a Dam-break environmental impact assessment index system.The system includes 7 indicators:River morphology,water environment,soil environment,vegetation cover,biodiversity,human ecological environment and pollution industry.And set the five levels of evaluation criteria of the Dam-break environmental impact.This paper establishes the model of Dam-break environmental impact assessment based on set pair analysis.The evaluation model was applied to Shaheji reservoir dam.The evaluation result was compared with another result based on fuzzy mathematics theory evaluation model.(4)Comprehensive evaluation of dam break risk consequence.The comprehensive assessment of dam risk consequences caused by the dam failure is difficult because of the uncertainty,inter related and the non unification of the risk consequences.This paper propose an dam risk comprehensive evaluation model based on set pair analysis.The evaluation model was applied to 5 dams comprehensive evaluation of jiangxi province.The evaluation result was compared with another result based on the attribute interval computation model.