Risk Management Of Water Conservancy And Hydropower Project In Super High Altitude Area

After the fifth Plenary Session of the 18 th CPC Central Committee,it is imperative to adjust the energy structure,the need for further effective development of hydropower resources in China at the present stage theory can be installed capacity of regional energy concentrated in high altitude area,and in the 3500 meters to 5500 meters high altitude area without the development of hydropower resources accounted for a huge risk,because of the complexity of ultra high altitude region and uniqueness,construction risk sudden increase.Combined with the engineering practice,and a large number of experts to conduct a survey data,the risk management method of general engineering applied in this paper,finally obtained for ultra high altitude water conservancy and hydropower project construction risk management theory system.The author's conclusion is as follows:(1)Reference to a large number of actual project,summarizes the construction environment characteristic of low temperature and low pressure and hypoxia;and reference a large number of scientific data,identify the impact of changes of ultra high altitude hydropower project construction work force and mechanical efficiency of the largest;and relevant experts to the investigation combined with the expert Delphy method,the final completion of the WBS(Work Breakdown Structure)and RBS(Risk Breakdown Structure),a WBS-RBS matrix,obtained 4 factors: risk assessment of the impact of the construction of environmental factors,the construction enterprise own ability factor,contract ability factors and other factors;and sums up the 16 risk factors the most important risk factors in the complete theoretical model is established for risk identification and the estimated.(2)By using AHP and fuzzy evaluation method,with the help of Matlab software,establish a risk assessment model,and draws a general conclusion: the highest high altitude area of water conservancy and hydropower project construction risk degree is higher,their capacity factors for environmental factors,generally for other factors,the smaller is the contract ability.But the whole ultra high altitude construction risk level of water conservancy and hydropower projects is higher.(3)The actual project of Qinghai hydropower station construction project in Yushu when the card into the established high altitude water conservancy and hydropower project construction risk evaluation system,will eventually come to the conclusion nd the actual situation is consistent.(4)In the final combination of the above example,the author gives the corresponding risk management measures for the 16 factors.The risk management system proposed in this paper can better meet the construction risk management of water conservancy and hydropower projects in super high altitude area,which is practical and can be referenced by similar projects.Analytic Hierarchy Process.