Power Flow And Prediction Of Wind Power Output In The Dachen Island

Wind energy is a kind of clean energy booming in the eastern coastal areas of Zhejiang Province which is rich in wind energy resources and near the east Consumption center of China.So it has became one of the most important areas in the development of wind farm.For example,Dachen Island located in central coast of Zhejiang Province,which estimated by the relevant departments,has a capacity of more than one million kilowatts in wind power.In 2009,The Dachen Island Sea Trails Interconnection Project completed,which connecting 220 k V Jin Qing Transformer Substation and 35 k V Da Chen Transformer Substation by a 35 k V submarine cable,ended the history of long-term isolation of the Da Chen Island's grid.This project provides a channel for the wind power to get out.In 2010,Zhejiang Star Wind Power Co.Ltd had invested and finished the construction of the first phase of Star Wind Power Farm,which has a capacity of 25.5 megawatts,provided a new vitality to the eastern part of Taizhou local power grid.Jiaojiang Electric Power Supply Company,who is in charge of the new wind farm's dispatching and operation,has encountered numerous of new problems.Recently,the second phase of Star Wind Power Farm is being demonstrated.We need to learn from the past,to learn as much as we can in the preliminary research.The difficulties of wind power bring us generally as the follows:1)The randomness of wind brings great difficulties to power dispatching and making power generation plan,the wind power output is almost impossible to make an effective prediction;2)The wind power generation units brings a large number of unpredictable impact on the power flow,loss,frequency and power angle;3)The wind power may bring harmonic pollution,voltage fluctuations,flicker and some other effects to the distribution network on the Da Chen Island.In this paper,by using python language and related open source toolkit to study the following aspects of the Dachen Island wind farm:First,introduces the latest development of wind energy and the advantages and disadvantages of using wind energy,at the same time,introduces the history of Dachen Island Grid and the history of wind power utilization on the island.Second The probability model of the wind turbine output and the probability model of the wind farm output are deduced by the Weibull probability model of wind power;Third Introduce the basic concepts and common algorithms of power flow calculation,using the Pypower toolkit,to study the power flow of Xing Xing wind farm and the impact to the local power grid;Fourthly,by a new idea form the project of wind ML to forecast the output of windmill project in Germany,Using the Wind ML and Sklearn toolkits,to explore the possibility of improving the accuracy of wind power output prediction,from a radically different perspective – “data mining and machine learning algorithms”.