The Safety Evaluation And Management Of Regional Power Grid Under The Influence Of Wildfire

Power system is the enrgy supply system which the modern socialty highly relies on.With the huge power grid acrossing urban,rural areas and mountains in China,the scale of grid is increasing.On one hand,The scope of power grid construction is more and more extensive.On the other hand,the transmission line with large capacity and cross-regional was put into application continuously.Transmission lines are increasingly threatened by wildfires which seriously affect the security of power supply network security.Grid enterprises should attach great importance to the assessment and response of wildfire disaster.Particularity of grid operation should be recognized clearly and right decisions should be taken when wildfire disaster happened.So that the probability of accidents could be reduced and the system operation could keep stable and safe.The research content of this paper are belows.Firestly,this paper studied the wildfire disaster and its infuencing factors of Geographical and climatic factors,combustible factors and fire source factors.And then,from the three aspact of meteorological factors,envirnmental factor and Line parameters,this paper take 10 hazard factor of power wildfire disaster.They are average precipitation,air relative humidity,average wind speed,accumulated drought days,vegetation density,vegetation type,number of burning,line density,equipment damage rate,line to ground distance.Then the importance degree of these 10 hazard factors was calculated by AHP and several important factors were obtained.Secondly,Based on the above analysis,the safety evaluation of regional power grid is carried out.Based on the establishment principle of safety comprehensive evaluation index system,22 indicators were selected from the five aspects of natural environment,grid characteristics,safety management system,disaster resilience and social impact to establish the safety evaluation index system of regional power grid under the influence of wildfire natural disaster.The indicators are described in detail.Thirdly,the safety evaluation model of regional power system under the influence of wildfire natural disaster was constructed based on the gray correlation analysis method and comprehensive integration weighting method.In the comprehensive integration weighting method,the entropy method and the rough set method were selected as the methods to determine the objective weight and the order relation method,AHP method were selected as the subjective weight determination method.By using the theory of moments estimation,the four methods were organically combined to the weight which can reflect both the subjective information and the objective information.Then,the comprehensive integration weighting method and gray relational analysis were combined to evaluate the safety of the regional power system under the natural influence of mountain fire.Using the established model,this paper made an empirical analysis on the power grid of Hunan Province,and verifies accuracy and scientificity of the model.Finally,the paper put forward the management strategy of the safe deployment of the grid.considering the various stages of the disaster,the paper put forward the pre-prevention strategy,the control strategy and the post-disposal strategy respectively before,during and after the disaster.