Research On The Evolution Method Of Engineering Risk Of Power Transmission Project

Risk analysis and forecast of power transmission project has become a key problem in the current construction of power transmission project, the establishment of project risk analysis system is the effective control of the project and the construction project is the key to success. But the power transmission project risk analysis method is established to find out the influence factors of control engineering,and then take effective measures for these risk factors, reduce or eliminate some unforeseen emergencies which may occur in the process of project construction.According to the actual demand, based on the research status at home and abroad are summarized and analyzed the existing problems, introduces some methods of risk prediction, the advantages and disadvantages of these methods are described and analyzed. Based on the characteristics of transmission project, risk factors often appear in various stages of transmission the project to identify and measure. These risks are mainly project risk, project risk, financial risk, schedule risk, quality risk,technology risk, organization risk, discipline risk, environmental risk, risk rectification, force majeure risks. In the project implementation process, the environmental risk of transmission project bidding stage technical risk, system risk,cost risk in the design phase of the rectification of approval, all kinds of risks in construction stage and completion stage, force majeure risk makes the construction of power transmission project difficult As a result, it is necessary to analyze and elaborate the risk measurement, quantitative risk measurement and risk occurrence.On this basis, the principle and methods of risk prediction is further discussed,the characteristics of the neural network and genetic algorithm is analyzed.population initialization, calculation India function, genetic operator to initialize weights, given its use process. Finally a power transmission project as an example to analysis and practical results show that combining neural network and genetic algorithm, the prediction of risk in the construction of power transmission project, the measured data and the sample data to the same trend, the range of error small, very close to the results of real prediction. Therefore, the risk prediction model of neural network and genetic algorithm combined with strong adaptation in reality.