Delay Analysis Of Terminal Area Traffic Flow Under Short-term Weather Changes

With the rapid development of civil aviation transport industry,the demand of flights grows rapidly.The imbalance between terminal area capacity and traffic flow often leads to the occurrence of flight delay under the changes of short-term weather conditions.In order to improve the terminal area operation efficiency and reduce flight delay,the terminal area delay time and delay cost problem become the focus of this paper.There are several factors affecting the terminal airspace and airport capacity,such as weather conditions,approach procedures,runways geometry and operation mode.Therefore,terminal airspace flight delay time based on weather changed,closely spaced parallel runways capacity and delay prediction,and terminal area flight delay cost calculation are three main aspects of this paper.Firstly,according to the different color of radar echo Plane-Position Indication and Range-Height Indication,the precipitation grades is classified.The corresponding time of traffic flow information is matched to the convective clouds,and the calculation method of 3D weather impacted traffic index(WITI)based on the different levels of precipitation is put forward.The short-term delay prediction model is proposed through exponential regression analysis between WITI and delay time.Secondly,this paper develops analytical models for ultimate arrival,departure,and mixed operation capacity of closely spaced parallel runways.The interval time between the former and the latter aircraft is based on the flight rules and control interval regulations according to weather conditions,then calculating delay time by queuing theory.Finally,according to the fuel consumption rate of the aircraft in cruising and descent phase in BADA database,the fuel consumption model considering arrival procedures and aircraft performance is established,and the delay time cost and fuel cost model for weather affected rerouting aircraft is put forward in order to calculate the total cost of flight delays in the terminal area.