Research And Development Of Small-size Cargo Express Assistant Decision System In Road Long-distance Passenger Transport

Small-size Cargo Express in Road Long-distance Passenger Station,refers to the extension service for delivering shipper's goods to the consignee,which is through the long-distance passenger bus luggage hold,along with the passenger bus from the departure station to the destination station.On the macro level,the small-size cargo express on the basis of road long-distance passenger transport shows a slow growth trend.However,for some lines and stations,the freight volume of small-size cargo express is gradually reduced.There are many reasons for it.For transportation enterprises themselves,the randomness in the formulation of small-size cargo express freight rates and the lack of scientific pricing method are important factors that cause the decline of express freight volume of small-size cargo in long-distance passenger transportation.For instance,freight rates are independently formulated by each transport enterprise and freight pricing criterion is chaotic,which seriously blocks the development of small express.On the one hand,there is lack of theoretical support for the formulation of freight rates.The Small-size cargo express is lack of standardized pricing standards,which can not make a suitable freight rates for the development of the transportation business according to the actual situation,and adjust freight rates flexibly to cope with the market change.It is urgent to integrate the pricing standards and formulate a competitive freight rates system.On the other hand,there is lack of application platform for the formulation of freight rates.Although the informatization of the road long-distance passenger station is gradually established,the mining and integration of historical data,such as volume and cost,is still a blank.If the freight rate established in the theoretical model can not be directly applied to the business system,it can not provide real-time decision support for managers,and it is more difficult to verify the effectiveness of theoretical freight rates.In this thesis,models are set up respectively for volume forecast,cost accounting,and freight rate formulation,and the author designs and develops the small-size cargo express assistant decision system,aiming to provide theoretical basis and application platform for road small-size cargo express.At first,the present situation of small-size cargo express is summarized and analyzed by SWOT analysis,and the necessity of development of the assistant decision system are put forward.Secondly,in order to Zhaogongkou long-distance passenger station as an example,this thesis introduced and used many kinds of methods to predict the freight volume from Zhaogongkou to passenger station in Shandong.The results are compared and analyzed,and the use conditions of different forecasting methods are summed up.After that,the thesis makes statistics on the fixed cost and variable cost related to the small-size express service in passenger station,and calculates the operation cost of the small-size cargo express in the station and the transport company.In addition,it also chooses and establish two pricing models to be optimized,and discriminates the suitable scope of application,so as to realize the function of assistant decision system's transportation pricing.Finally,the requirements of the assistant decision system are studied,the overall framework and the front-end pages are designed,which represent accomplishment of the research and development of the assistant decision system for small-size cargo express transportation.With combining historical transport data to realize the assistant decision function related to transportation,cost and freight rate,the assistant decision system will provide a theoretical basis and an application platform for the establishment of a reasonable pricing mechanism of small-size cargo express,and assist the passenger station to adjust the freight rate flexibly.Similarly,it will give the effective decision to station personnel,which can help the road small-size cargo express improve the competitiveness of the market.