Schedule Risk In Prefabricated Housing Project: A Social Network Analysis

With the development of construction industry in China,the PHP(Prefabricated Housing Projects)began to appear and rise.However,many problems and uncertainties in the PHP,which often directly or indirectly affect the goals.It has been interfered by various schedule risks,which not only affect the realization of the schedule goal,but also bring great pressure to the cost goal in the construction process of the PHP.In the past,research on the schedule risk of PHP was mainly concentrated in the construction phase,which limited the integrity and accuracy of the research.In practical projects,the PHP encourages EPC(Engineering Procurement Construction)model.Every step from decision-making,design,manufacturing,transportation and construction is closely related to the realization of the schedule goal.It can be seen that it is crucial to pay attention to the schedule risk of the whole construction cycle of the PHP.In addition,schedule risks are not independence of each other,as well as risk factors intertwine and transmit to each other throughout the whole construction period.All of them form a complex social network relationship.Therefore,this paper introduces the stakeholder theory and social network analysis methods,constructs and analyzes the network model of schedule risks,and evaluates the impact of risk factors,thus helping to solve the construction problems of some fabricated residential projects.Firstly,34 progress risk factors of the PHP are identified from the 2-d perspective of construction cycle and stakeholders.Then,a questionnaire is designed according to the identified risk factors’ influence relations,and 128 valid questionnaires are collected.After the consistency analysis,a binary matrix of schedule risk network is constructed and visualized.Secondly,SNA(Social Network Analysis)is used to analyze the whole network and individual network of the schedule risk network in the PHP,and identify 4 key risks and key relationships.Then,put forward the corresponding countermeasures and test the control effect.Finally,a contrastive analysis of the schedule risk network of the PHP with four different stakeholders including the owner,the designer,the contractor and the producer is displayed and the conclusion is drawn by using the overall network and the individual network.This paper quantitatively analyzes the risk factors and influence relations of the PHP,and provides reference for project managers’ risk control.At the same time,analyzing the risk models of different stakeholders provides some help to manage the schedule risk for themselves.Furthermore,promotes the joint efforts of all parties to achieve the progressive goal of the PHP,and play a role in the success of the project.