Tailings Dam Multiple Monitoring Index Risk Assessment Method Based On Decision Preference Elimination

As a man-made hazard source with high potential energy,there is a great security threat with the tailings dam.Once the dam break accident occurs,it will not only cause serious damage to the natural environment and affect the people's life safety,but also cause irreparable loss to the state property and economy.Therefore,a variety of external monitoring indexes that can reflect the risk state of tailings dam are used to assess the risk state of the tailings dam,which is used to control and govern the tailings dam,and prevents the occurrence of dam break.Therefore,there is a high research value with it.Most of the existing risk assessment methods of tailings dam are based on the uncertainty of the monitoring information,and the risk state of the tailings dam is evaluated on the basis of the processed result.However,the existing evaluation methods often fail to take account of using the fuzzy number decision information and speech decision information to make a risk decision of the tailing dam,which limits the application scope of the existing methods.Moreover,the existing methods do not take into account the influence of decision preference on decision information and final decision results during the decision making process,which could lead to the misjudgement of the final risk decision.In view of the above problems,the tailings dam multiple monitoring index risk assessment method based on decision preference elimination is constructed by using the multiple attribute decision theory,possibility theory and the related content of decision preference.The main research contents are as follows:(1)The application mode of multiple attribute decision making algorithm in the risk assessment of tailings dam is analyzed,the production of decision preference and the influencing factors are analyzed.Based on the characteristics of the risk assessment of tailings dam,this paper analyzes the influence of the decisionmaker's decision preference on theaccuracy of the risk assessment of tailings dam.(2)The characteristics of the tailings dam and its external monitoring indexes are analyzed,and the selection scheme set and decision attribute set are defined to facilitate the application of the multiple attribute decision making theory to the risk assessment of tailings dam.According to the changing process of the stability state of the tailings dam,the risk states are divided and characterized,and the external monitoring index information of the uncertain tailing dam is represented by the possibility theory.(3)In the multiple monitoring index risk decision problem of the tailings dam with triangular possibility distribution,the digital feature of the possibility distribution is introduced into the multiple attribute decision making method and the influence of decision preference is considered to define the preference probability mean and the standard deviation of preference probability based on the decision preference factor.The possibility mean,the possibility standard deviation,the preference possibility mean and the preference possibility standard deviation are combined with the VIKOR multiple attribute decision making method to construct the tailings dam risk assessment method of the possibility VIKOR based on the preference factor,and the example verification and comparison analysis are carried out.The results verify the reliability of the method and the accuracy of the group decision preference.(4)In the multiple monitoring index risk decision-making problem of tailings dam for language information,the definition of HFLTS possibility is improved by considering the influence of decision preference.Based on the improved HFLTS and linear weighted multiple attribute decision making method,the risk assessment making method of tailings dam based on HFLTS preference possibility is constructed and verified and compared.The results prove that the method has reliability and accuracy.