Font Size: a A A

Theory, Method And Application Of Multi-Attribute Decision Making And Risk Analysis On Water Resources Management

Posted on:2004-12-14Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:Z L WangFull Text:PDF
GTID:1102360095953666Subject:Hydrology and water resources
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
There are many assessment and decision-making issues in water management. The results of assessment and decision-making are founded by stated criteria which is usually not one and only, so multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) is necessary.MCDM includes multi-objective decision-making (MODM) and multi-objective decision-making (MADM).The theory and methods on the former are better then the latter's .Studying contents are focus on allocation of water in several reservoirs and allocation of surface water and ground water in a small region. As for the multiple objectives decision-making on allocation of water in a large region, it was studied in the national key research project during the period of the8th, 9th 5-year plan. The studying results show that it is difficult for multiple objective models to be built, to be founded reslution and to be used in the practice. Studying work is few and is not system about the later. Research was focus on evluation of water quality and envirmental impact of water conservancy engineerings. However, MADM is more useful in the production practice. It is valuable both in academic field and in practice to study on the theory, method and application of MADM on water resources management.From what has been discussed above, we summarized the former studying work. According to the principles of sustainable development, an integrative theory, method of MADM on water resources management was provided by means of thetechniques of system science, modern multiple element statistics, water resource science, computer science and so on.In the introducation, the backgrounds and senses of this study is set forth; studying actuality is summarized; the primary contants is brielfly introduced.Based on the theorem of sustainable development, an indicator system is put forward to assesse alternative projects on rational allocation of water resource in Heihe basin. When electing the indictors, 5 basic principles which include society rationality, economy rationality, ecology rationality, efficiency rationality and system rationality must be followed. Primary component analysis (PCA) is applied to quantitatively elect indictors used for final evaluation in the second charpter. Consequently, the mapping from high dimension space to low dimension one with keeping space character is realized. The way of electing indictors is changed by experts' experiences or simple relativity analysis of indicators. On basis of new concepts of bargaining weights and combined weights, a non-linear programming model is established in the 5th charpter. To find the solution of the model, chaos optimal algorithm is developed in the 4th charpter. Of course, this chaos algrithoms is also used in other places, such as the 11th charpter.The methods of mutiple attribute decision-making on water resources management are studying keystone in 6th,7thand 8th charpter.Assessing objects include allocating projects of water resources and the level of water-using in a region. From the view of methodolgy, the hybrid weights and hybrid forecast suggest new thought of hybrid assessment. The new method makes full use of the given information and conbine the adventage of different methods. The feasibility of applying fuzzy matter element analysis (FMEA) to multiple attributes decision-making is discussed in the 8th charpter. At present, many studying works focus on improving on AHP. The induction of FMEA develops the research way wide.Since pretreatment of indictors is not discussed in the privious charpter, the project alternatives on water resource allocation in Mianyang are resolved with the qualitative, quantitative method and theory. The other purpose of this charpter is tostudy the issues of allocation of water resources in the typical city.Compared with previous three charpter, the 9th charpter also belongs to the dimension of multiple attribute decision-making. However, the way of considering question is distinctly different. Applying data envelopment analysis (DBA), a linear programming model assessing th...
Keywords/Search Tags:water resources management, multi-attribute decision-making, weights analysis, assessment, group decision-making, risk analysis
PDF Full Text Request
Related items