Study And Analysis On The Agriculture Transport Machinery Accident In Hunan Province

The safety in agriculture transport machinery (ATM) is a complex system, in which lots of factors are interconnected and affected with each other. The factors that arouse the accidents in the agriculture transport machinery are varied with actual conditions. In some of the conditions these factors are cannot be described exactly and clearly, and in some of the conditions, the factors are deeply covered by the complex but directly appeared phenomena, which retard the people to get comprehensive and sufficient information for accident analysis and decision making. Therefore, it is essential to grasp the key influence factors for the accidents to foresee and alter the potential dangerous during the working of the agriculture transport machinery. We think it will significantly improve for the safety of ATM if we can carry out a system analysis on the accident factors, and further enhance the decision making efficiency and correction.Based on the survey, the accidents of ATM in Hunan Province have strong regional characteristics:most of the accidents occurred at two kinds of regions:the one is the places where have developed economy, well-maintained roads, large numbers of population, and large quantity of ATM; the other is the remote place with poor local roads. It is also found that the accidents are showing the features of age of driver dependence:it is much easier to be involved in an accident for a driver who has a driving experience lower than three years compared to the one with more than three years driving experience. At the same time, in the public holidays, such as the national golden week long holiday, spring festival, etc, the reported numbers of accidents are much higher than normalVia correlation analysis, we found that the main affection factors that affect the numbers of the accidents, the numbers of deaths and injuries, and economic losses in the ATM accidents are unappreciated operation, overloading, and unlicensed driving. It has to point out the total number of the ATM is not the main factor for accident possibility, which is different to the common car accidents. The analysis has also shown that the first factor for ATM accident is unappreciated operation, and the second one is illegal overloading.We have used the Grey correlation analysis theory to analyse the factors in ATM accidents, which can give us a clear explanation on the main factor determination and the interconnection among these factors. We have also built a prediction model based on the Grey Theory to predict the possible accident number and proposed a series of methods and procedures to foresee and control the ATM accidents.By using our gray theory prediction model, we can know that the main accident factors of ATM in Hunan Province will be mainly aroused by unlicensed driving, overloading and over speed, and illegal passenger loading in the next five years. While the main factors in 2008-2014, such as unappreciated operation and mechanical failure, will decrease dramatically. In another word, the factors that caused by the people will dominate the accidents, on contrary to the factors caused by the machine. Our research presents the distribution characteristics and the features of the ATM accident in Hunan Province in a macro-scale, which can give prediction on the possible ATM accidents and help to decrease the possibility of ATM accident during working and can guide the decision making during the management of ATM.