Study On The Impact Of Agricultural Natural Disasters On Grain Production In Shandong Province

Food security problem is a major global issue which is related to social stability and the sustainable and healthy development of the national economy.In recent years,the frequent occurrence of agricultural natural disasters has aggravated the fluctuation of grain output,which has great influence on the grain production.Shandong province is an important grain producing province in China,which is also a province where agricultural natural disasters happen frequently.To ensure the stable grain production in Shandong province is of great significance to maintain the balance of grain supply and demand,to ensure national food security,to promote the income of farmers and to realize the sustainable development of agriculture.This paper firstly made an theoretical analysis of the direct effect of natural disasters on food production as well as the indirect effect;secondly,using the data of grain production and agricultural disasters in Shandong province from 1978 to 2014,this paper analyzes the timing trend of grain production and agricultural natural disasters in Shandong province as well as their spatial distribution characters.Then this paper measured the impact level of agricultural disasters on grain yield using the decomposition model,made grey relational analysis the model to calculate related degree between different kinds of grains and disasters and used the decoupling theory to explain the binding strength of agricultural disasters to grain production.The main conclusions are as follows:From the perspective of time sequence,both the total output and the single output of grain showed a trend of steady improvement,which had obvious difference between the stages.From the perspective of spatial distribution,the central and western regions of Shandong province mainly focused on the high grain output.The regional difference in total grain output was more significant.The evolution trend of Shandong Province agricultural natural disasters mainly showed as the scope of increasing drought and rising influence,showing obvious seasonal and alternate characteristics.The effect of disaster chain is increasingly obvious.As time went on,the agricultural natural disasters also showed a trend of increasing the number of the big disasters and decreasing the number of small disasters.The spatial distribution characteristics of agricultural natural disasters in Shandong province are as follows: the eastern part is fewer and the west is more;the northern part is more while the southern part is fewer.From the degree of efficiency of grain production,the impact of agricultural natural disasters on food production whose degree is 58.93% has been in the first place,which is far higher than the technical factors whose degree is 31.49% and social factors whose degree is 9.57%.In general,drought disaster whose correlation degree is 0.5874 is still at the top for the degree of the negative impact of grain production,followed by flood disaster whose correlation degree is 0.5649 and hail disaster whose correlation degree is 0.4877.As for wheat and corn planting,drought disaster is also the most important agricultural natural disaster,followed by flood disaster and hail disaster.From the degree of scale of grain production,the relationship between agricultural disaster area and the total grain output still showed expansion of the coupling,which means areas of agricultural natural disasters and the average of total grain output is still increasing and the increasing rate of agricultural natural disasters is higher than that of total grain output.total grain output is still strongly bound by agriculture natural disasters.In terms of the resilience of the farmland water conservancy facilities,the correlation between reservoir capacity and agricultural natural disasters is the highest,followed by the total power of effective irrigation area,agricultural irrigation and drainage.Finally,this paper provided some suggestions for disaster prevention and mitigation of grain production in Shandong province from the aspects of protecting agricultural ecological environment,improving water conservancy infrastructure construction and warning capabilities of agricultural natural disasters,strengthening the development of new varieties of grains and perfecting agricultural insurance.