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Task Formation And Air Defense Threat Assessment Model Based On Bayesian Network

Posted on:2017-07-07Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:J LiFull Text:PDF
GTID:2336330503972425Subject:Control Engineering
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
It has been proved by experience that the case to weigh a nation's war strength level is no longer by comparing the power of military equipment and other physical force,but to compare the degree of recognition to the war situation and the decision-making ability of commander.Using computer wargame to simulate the war can not only reduce the resource and time to compare with the live practice on the past time, but also can improve the command of controllers. At the same time, on the basis of simulation system, accurate battlefield for grade of target threat evaluation is of great significance for the commander to make correct decision.In order to realize the aim, the thesis studies the international strategic wargame in military struggle deduction subsystem and in warship air defense process assessment invading for grade of target threat evaluation model. Wargame, Bayesian network at home and abroad research status, to war as the background, analysis the wargame constitute the basic elements and key technology are introduced. The design and implementation of task formation and the order of task formation are studied. At the same time based on the task of wargame formation, studied naval defense. The aim is to solve the fleet in insufficient information and many uncertain factors and targets in the air of threat level assessment, based on DBN (dynamic Bayesian network) of target threat evaluation model is established. First analyzes the elements of the threat of warship air target and the model of process, then extract the characteristic variables of the model, again according to the expert experience, the paper gives the target prior probability and adjacent time for grade of target threat of transition probability, and gives the DBN inference steps and derived the desired inference algorithm.Finally, simulation examples. The simulation results show that based on DBN target threat evaluation model is reasonable and feasible, and the simulation results are in accord with the objective reality. Moreover, this paper also discusses the errors in the observed information, respectively analyzes the DBN and BN inference calculation results. The results show that in accuracy of the DBN inference method results better than BN inference results and DBN has a strong smoothing filter.
Keywords/Search Tags:War game, Fleet command, Bayesian networks, Threat level
PDF Full Text Request
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