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Research On Risk Analysis Problems In Actions Of Controlling Chaos And Riot For Mobile Troops

Posted on:2015-10-22Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:J PengFull Text:PDF
GTID:2336330509460787Subject:Project management
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In recent years, with the increasing trend of worldwide violent and terroristic incidents, it has been becoming an imperative task for governments to put down terrorists and maintain the stability of society. With the diversity of terroristic activities’ violence ways, our mobile troops will face all kinds of risk source which originate from enemies’ states, battlefield environment, command decisions, riot equipments, inside and outside support factors when they carry out actions of controlling chaos and riot(ACCR). These risk source may not only lead to casualties, equipment faults, battle power’s decrease, and even result in the failure of ACCR plan. It is quite difficult for each level’s commanders to solve such problems that how to reasonably analyze these risk source who affect ACCR plan, accurately identify the risk events in these factors, scientifically assess these risk events, and effectively control possible risks, which may reduce ACCR’s risks and losses, and improve its success rate. To resolve these problems above, in this thesis we mainly study the following four contents.(1) We introduce related concepts and theories of risk management and ACCR. Specially speaking, firstly we elaborate the meanings, attributes and classification of risk, the contents and methods of risk analysis; secondly, we give the concept and characteristic of ACCR, the classification of violent and terroristic incidents; thirdly, we define the ACCR risk, study the characteristic of ACCR risk analysis and principles of ACCR risk control; lastly, give the steps of ACCR risk analysis.(2) We analyse the influence factors of ACCR risk according to Xinjiang District’s situation. Based on the layered classification analysis, we investigate the risk source such as members, command and decision, equipments, logistics support, enemies’ states, battlefield environment, public opinions, oversea support powers, policies and rules respectively, from the system science point. We also study the interaction relationship between among them.(3) We propose a risk analysis model of ACCR. Firstly, based on the experts’ evaluation and brainstorming, the SEI identification method is improved; then, the risk matrix of ACCR is presented which is based on Borda sequence and AHP; thirdly, based on improved SEI and risk matrix methods, we construct the risk analysis model of ACCR which mainly consists of the risk identification method, the risk evaluation method and the risk monitoring and control method which is based on the revised risk matrix of risk analysis model.(4) Combination the background of " 7 ? 5 " event in Xinjiang district, we analysis all kinds of risk events and then make a total quantitative risk evaluation in ACCR plan, using the risk analysis model presented in this thesis. Based on the assessment results, we propose the corresponding risk control strategies and recommendations.
Keywords/Search Tags:Action of Controlling Chaos and Riot(ACCR), Risk Analysis, Risk Source, Improved Risk Matrix Method(IRMM), Improved SEI Classification Method(ISCM)
PDF Full Text Request
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