Study On Investment Risk Management Of H Pension Real Estate Project

Our country has entered the Silver Tide era since 20 th century,the aging population is increasing.It is estimated that by 2040,the population of 65 years old or older exceeds 1/5% of the total population.Government,society,construction operators and children are increasingly concerned about pension problems.At the same time the major real estate companies have announced the expansion of pension real estate,pension real estate project as a new real estate form,investment in large scale,the long payback period,the risk factors are very complex.Policy,economy and other factors become the main factors influencing their investment.Investors tend to pay attention to the high profits of pension real estate project,while ignoring the high-risk accompanied by the high-margin.Once the investment failure,the consequences for investors are unimaginable.At present,the study of the risk of pension property in China is less,there is no ready-made model for the risk assessment of endowment property,and the research method is also a single reference.Therefore,effectively Preventing the risks encountered in the investment process,and giving the proposals are our urgent problem.This article is on the basis of reading a large number of documents and materials,first of all,introduced the research background,research significance,H-Pension real Estate Project overview,focused on the risk identification,risk assessment methods and risk estimation methods,for the following to provide theoretical support.Secondly,it analyzes the influence factors of the investment income of H-endowment real estate Project,and again,analyzes the risk of project investment,through selecting the sensitive factors of the project and choosing the analysis index,by using single factor sensitivity analysis method to analyze the influence of project sensitivity factor on net present value,in order to make up the shortcoming of single factor sensitivity factor analysis method,the paper uses Monte Carlo simulation method to analyze the investment risk of the project and give the corresponding evaluation.Finally,according to the characteristics of the project and the complexity of the degree,how to deal with the risk,gives a reasonable risk response measures.Pension real Estate is a system engineering of real estate and pension services.It's uncertain in traditional field,especially in pension real estate project.In order to improve the risk management level of the developer of H-aged real estate project,it is important to appraise the project risk,and can provide some reference for the same type of pension real estate project.