UK Conservative Party And The ‘Brexit' Referendum:Ideology?Party Politics And European Integration

The years between the formation of the Conservative-Lib Dem Coalition Government in 2010 and the referendum in 2016 saw the Conservative Party moving towards the 'Brexit' direction.Underpinned by the ideology and traditions within the Conservative Party,changes of the political ecology with a more Eurosceptic public,the rise of populist anti-Europe party as well as tensions under the coalition with the Lib Dems led to growing calls for a referendum from Conservative backbench.Intra-party divisions were reopened on 'Europe' and rebellions posed threat to the Party.Out of the concerns of intra-party cohesion and inter-party competition,the leadership took a pragmatic approach and gradually compromised on his stance.Consequently,the government began with a relatively positive European policy when it took office,but ended with a shambolic referendum which has overhauled Britain's relationship with Europe.This paper argues that the division of the Conservative Party and the referendum on Britain's EU membership are two interactive issues which are mutually reinforcing.On the one hand,rebellions caused by the accumulated skepticism towards the European Union and dissatisfaction within the Party helped to bring on the in-out referendum.On the other,the prospect of a referendum and the referendum campaign provided a perfect battlefield where the right-wing hardliners and opportunists have been galvanized and mobilized,which exacerbated the Party's fragmentation during the period.However,it should also be pointed out that the referendum result of a 'Leave'vote is beneficial to the Conservative Party.Compared with a 'Leave' vote,a vote to'Remain' would have brought more daunting circumstances for the Party.Not only would it be more divisive for the Party,but also risk infuriating the 'Leave' voters who would feel unrepresented.It could boost the UKIP and leave the Conservative Party scathed,and possibly lead to an earthquake in the British political landscape with changes to the party system in the long run.The unexpected 'Leave' vote has,in this sense,brought tidings to the Conservative Party.After a brief period of intra-party strife and David Cameron's resignation,the new leader Theresa May quickly took over.The policy agenda under Theresa May to deliver a 'hard Brexit' and her strategic balance of the rival factions within the Party managed to curb further division.The Conservative Party has appeared more united.In terms of party competition,the party has successfully commanded the political spectrum from the centre to the right.UKIP,the once biggest threat brought on by 'Europe' lost its attraction to supporters who converted from the Conservative Party under David Cameron.The Opposition Labour Party is not only deemed as'unelectable' under Jeremy Corbyn,but suffers division and friction most seriously on 'Brexit' as a direct result of the referendum.Months after the referendum,Conservative Party is in dominance,with Theresa May and her government in strong position.Nevertheless,on the other hand,the referendum has also led to underlying problems for the Conservative Party.First,in the newly emerged political sphere,where the new division is between establishment and anti-establishment,the Party has gradually lurched to the right.Pioneered by some of the politicians within the party,as a mainstream party,the Conservative Party has been moving away from the moderate centre in British politics to employ a more populist line.Despite the electoral gain through catering to the public mood,there is a danger for the party in the long run to vacate the centre ground,its ideology,political culture and ecology being challenged.Second,although it is the voice of the 'Leave' voters that has been dominating the political discourse,the view of the other 48%also needs to be heard and represented.Otherwise,a revolt among the 'Remain' voters could be stoked and led by the pro-Remain Parties,such as the Lib-Dem.The anger and discontent from the 'Remain' voters could be capitalised to punish the Tories.This would be more delicate for Tory MPs in seats where a majority of the voters backed 'Remain'.Although they are temporarily mollified,rifts threatens to open within the Party once the negotiation begins.Third,and also most crucially,voters' already frail trust in political parties was once again weakened in the referendum,which would in turn shake the party system in the long run.The referendum has both unveiled and aggravated the division among voters.Their allegiance towards the political parties might fade more rapidly in a multi-dimensional political universe,where to maintain a 'Conservative Century' will be a challenge in a gradually more fragmented landscape.