Under The New Budget Law, The Research Of Local Government Debt Risk Warning Index System

Since reform and opening up,our economic got rapid development,GDP growth has been at the level of the high speed development,the pace of urban integration in fast forward,the urbanization rate is above 50%.As the reform of fiscal system,local governments are taking more responsibility of the development of regional economy,in order to better carry out the functions of the government itself to provide more perfect infrastructure,most local governments choose debt financing way to support the government's huge fiscal spending,especially in the form of financing platform company for debt financing,debt scale expands rapidly,which causes a series of debt risk.The financial crisis in 2008,caused great negative impact to Chinese economic growth,economic growth appeared "tired" period,the central government through active fiscal policy to stimulate demand,thus causing the local fiscal gap makes the form of local government through debt to make up for.Huge debt scale in our country,the serious problem of debt risk cause the attention of society.In order to resolve local government debt risks in time,to ensure economic operation in steady,construct the index system of risk early warning is particularly important.The main purpose of this paper is to build up a complete,high applicability of local government debt risk early warning index system and provide reference for dissolve the debt risks.Firstly,this paper clarify the meaning and goal of local government debt risk early warning,understand how to identify local government debt risk and debt risk early warning method,and through the old and new budget law issue about local government debt risk,the new budget law in borrowing scope and scale,debt management and local government debt risk assessment and early warning mechanism is made clearer instructions and regulations.Secondly,according to local government debt figures released by the auditor,analyzed the basic characteristics of the debt in our country,mainly including debt scale,financing platform company as the main borrowing main body,the main in the infrastructure construction for borrowing money and debt pressure etc.Through the characteristic analysis found that the current problems of government debt.Then through the analysis of debt risk factors to understand the cause of local government debt risk.Thirdly,through the analysis of existing urban local debt risk early warning index system,as Chongqing and Jiangsu province,through the two provinces of debt present situation,the origin cause of formation and contrast of the index system,and the local debt risk early warning index system of other countries for reference,found that the deficiency of the existing risk early warning index system,mainly including the weaking theoretical foundation,lacking of enough comprehensive index classification and commonness,and using the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)to construct the new risk warning index system,index system can be divided into debt,debt paying ability and fiscal balances three categories,including each type also has specific indicators,calculated by the weight of each index in the quantitative analysis and sorting,determine the impact of the importance of the level of debt risk.Finally under the early-warning index system should be how to control the debt risk are proposed,respectively from control the scale of debt,debt paying ability,balance of financial revenue and expenditure,and improve the risk early warning mechanism were analyzed.