Population Structure Inertia And Dynamic Adjustments

Our country's population development as well as social-economic development, has experienced a long and tortuous stage. The population went through the period of rapid growth in early days and the time in 70's that family planning policy classified as a comprehensive national policy. Now China's population has promoted into a relatively smooth phase with moderate growth. However, the age structure of the population problem has thus been highlighted. Since 2000, China formally entered the aging society queue. Population structure is gradually developing to the elderly type, and population aging is increasingly grim. Therefore, the trend of population age structure, and the impact of economic, social, policies and other factors on the aging would be widespread concerned.This paper concerning the problem of the aging population structure, from both urban and rural perspectives, based on the relevant provincial data about the ratio of children and the elderly, built a dynamic panel data model with interactive effects. From this model, we would deeply analyze and measure the dynamic aging trend and the political effect on children ratio changes, and then explore the urban-rural differences. The empirical results show that the inertia of whether children or elderly ratio in rural areas is more significant than that in urban areas. The inertia on population ratio of children in rural areas is almost four times as much as that in urban and population policies mainly influence urban population structure. Rural aging trend is relatively stable, that currently facing the pressure by urbanization. While in the long term, the urban areas are the focus of aging, and the urban aging situation will rapidly deteriorate due to economic and social development. Meanwhile, the paper predicted "selective two-child policy" can help ease the pressure on urban aging to some extent in the future.