The Effects Of Population Aging On Consumption Structure Of Sichuan Province

With the deepening of population aging in various countries,the problem of population aging has become a worldwide problem.The increase of the elderly population in a country or region will lead to changes in the mainstream consumer groups to a certain extent,thus affecting the overall level of social consumption and consumption structure.In recent years,China's aging development has been accelerating,while the aging situation of urban and rural population also has some differences.Coupled with the dual economic background of urban and rural areas in China,the aging population will inevitably have different effects on the consumption structure of urban and rural residents.Sichuan Province is a large province of population and agriculture in Western China.It entered an aging society earlier than the whole country,and its population aging development situation is more severe.By the end of 2017,the number of elderly people aged 65 and over in Sichuan Province had reached 11.57 million,accounting for 13.94% of the total population,while the national average was 11.39%.At the same time,the aging degree of rural population in Sichuan province is higher than that in urban areas,and the consumption expenditure of urban and rural residents is quite different,so the consumption structure has changed differently.In this context,it is of practical significance to explore the impact of the aging of urban and rural population on the consumption structure of residents in Sichuan Province.Studying the difference of the impact of population aging on the consumption structure of urban and rural residents can provide theoretical basis for Sichuan provincial and local governments at all levels to formulate demand-oriented industrial policies and public service policies for the elderly according to the different situations of urban and rural areas,thus taking relevant measures to actively respond to the challenges and opportunities brought about by population aging,optimizing the consumption structure of urban and rural residents,and promoting the economic development of Sichuan province.Based on the existing research results at home and abroad,this paper combs the relevant theories and literature of population aging and consumption structure,and defines the basic path and method of studying the impact of population aging on consumption structure in Sichuan Province.Based on the perspective of urban-rural differences,combined with qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis,this paper applies grey relational analysis(GRA)and partial least squares regression(PLS)to study the impact of population aging on residents' consumption structure in Sichuan Province.Firstly,the basic situation of urban and rural population aging and consumption structure in Sichuan province from 2000 to 2016 is introduced.Through descriptive statistical analysis,it is found that the degree of rural population aging in Sichuan province is higher than that in cities and towns,and the gap between the two tends to widen gradually.The change of consumption structure of urban and rural residents in Sichuan province is different.Then,using the data of urban and rural population aging and residents' consumption structure from 2000 to 2016,using the grey relational analysis method(GRA),it is found that the three most influential factors of urban population aging on urban residents' consumption expenditure in Sichuan Province are: health care(0.67),clothing(0.60)and transportation and communication(0.59);The three most influential factors of rural areas are health care(0.87),daily necessities and services(0.79)and clothing(0.71).Next,using the partial least squares regression(PLS)method and the significance test of the partial regression coefficient,the study found that the aging of urban and rural population in Sichuan Province has a great difference on the consumption structure of urban and rural residents,which affects rural areas more than urban areas.The aging of urban population will result in the relative increase of medical care expenditure and the relative decrease of living goods and services expenditure of urban residents,but the impact on other types of consumption expenditure is not statistically significant;the aging of rural population has a positive impact on rural residents' clothing,medical care,transportation and communications,daily necessities and services consumption,and the degree of impact decreases.sports,culture and entertainment,and food consumption have a negative impact,and the degree of impact(absolute value)decreases.Finally,combining the results of this study with the actual situation of Sichuan Province,the following countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for Sichuan Province to actively cope with the aging population and optimize consumption structure: first,to accelerate the construction of urban and rural health care service system;second,to improve the infrastructure of rural communications;third,to enrich the forms of education,culture and entertainment of rural elderly;fourth,to develop the aging industry,to promote consumption of the elderly population.Based on the perspective of urban-rural differences,this paper studies the impact of population aging on residents' consumption structure in Sichuan Province,which is conducive to correctly grasping the differences between urban and rural population aging on residents' consumption structure in Sichuan Province,suiting measures to local conditions,and putting forward practical suggestions for different situations in urban and rural areas,so as to adjust residents' consumption structure more accurately and timely.