A Prediction Study On Postgraduate Education Scale Of Liaoning Province

According to the principle of education and society development mutual adaptation, to a region, education development status, politics, economy, society, conditions of colleges and universities and many other factors are closely related. In this case, it is a very important question worthy of attention and discussion that whether the present postgraduate education scale in Liaoning province which is matched with the construction of northeastern old industrial base revitalization can meet the future demands. It can provide decision-making basis for Liaoning province and even other provinces to make postgraduate education development plan.First of all, the paper defined the core concepts such as postgraduate education, education scale, education forecast, explained the theory basis such as higher education scale appropriate development theory, talent prediction theory and education planning theory, took an in-depth analysis of present Liaoning Province postgraduate education situation through a large amount of data, chose trend extrapolation, linear regression analysis and multiple linear regression analysis as the prediction methods. The paper collected historical data of postgraduate education enrollment scale in Liaoning province from Liaoning Province Education Statistics Yearbook (1998-2001), and determined the four indices which affect postgraduate education enrollment scale in Liaoning province, the number of college graduates, higher education funds expenditure, GDP of Liaoning Province and postgraduate tutors. Secondly, the paper predicted Liaoning Province postgraduate education scale with the prediction methods of trend extrapolation, linear regression analysis and multiple linear regression analysis, got the forecasting results respectively and made a comparison of them. The paper finally found that during 2012-2021 postgraduate education scale in Liaoning province will still increase but in a lower rate. Based on the research conclusion, the paper revealed the main problems of postgraduate education in Liaoning province that may appear in the future development process from the five aspects of mandatory plan, scale-structure relationship, scale-quality relationship, tutor resources and funding. Finally, the paper put forward the policy recommendations according to future trends from the point of view of management system, scale-structure coordination, education quality, tutor team construction and training benefit.