A Research On Influence Factors And Prediction Of China's Higher Education Scale

The long-term process of universal higher education in China will be affected by the universal two-child policy because the policy increasing the population of new birth influence the higher education school-age population.We construct a VEC model based on Co-integration theory with the time-series data from 1979 to 2015,selecting gross enrollment ratio as dependent variable and GDP,GDP per capita,employment proportion for secondary and tertiary industry,higher education school-age,unemployment rate and the policy of expanding recruitment of higher education as independent variables.We find that the policy of expanding recruitment of higher education is the main factor of high education expanding,and the growth rate of the gross enrolment rate of higher education has reached 38.9 of the elasticity of the higher education enrollment policy.The positive influence of the school-age population on the scale expansion of higher education is increasing.The proportion of employment per capita GDP and employment proportion for tertiary industry has a positive effect on the expansion of higher education scale,while the employment proportion for second industry and unemployment rate of GDP industry and second industry have a negative effect.The impulse analysis and variance decomposition based on the VEC model show that the influence factors of the scale of higher education in the short term are different from those in the long run.The expansion of the scale of higher education in the short term is most affected by the policy of higher education expansion,and is also influenced by its own development.The employment proportion of GDP,per capita GDP,third and second industry has a positive effect on the expansion of higher education in a short time,while the unemployment rate has the reverse effect.Then we predict the year of 2017 to 2040 of school-age population in higher education,and establish the Logistic prediction model of gross enrollment rate of higher education based on the gross enrollment rate of higher education in 1990-2016 years,and estimate the number of students in higher education based on the school age population and gross enrollment rate.We conclude that in the coming period of the school-age population in higher education in our country will present a trend with a rapid decline first and gradual increase later,and then present a development trend followed with a sharp increase and quick dwindling subsequently under the influence of the universal two-child policy;in 2019,China's gross enrollment rate of higher education will be more than 50%,the development of higher education into the stage of universal higher education in China;the number of students will increase steadily over the next 30 years.