Research On Scale Prediction Of Basic Education And Countermeasures In Hebei Province

Since the 21st century,school-age population in the foundation stage of education reduces substantially,and educational resources began to appear idle and waste.Therefore, from the commencement of this century,Hebei Province vigorously carry out the work of the structural readjustment of primary and secondary schools,intending to enhance the quality in the allocation of education resources,to improve the education quality and efficiency and to promote the sustained,healthy and coordinated development in the basic education.So in the future of the foundation stage of education,whether school-age population will continue to shrink? Will the adjust of layout in the structure of primary and secondary schools adapt to future changes in demand for basic education? How should we respond to these changes? These are our questions that must be seriously dealt with.First of all,this study uses the method of sub-element prediction,and by establishing the population model,it predicts the school-age population of basic education from 2008 to 2030 in Hebei Province.The prediction results show that school-age population of basic education at all levels trends to differ materially in Hebei Province.The primary school age population of the province from 2008 to2030,shows the process from low to high,and then descends,in which the largest school-age population for 2021 are 6,450,900 people, representing at least an increase of 48.07 percent than the 4,356,800 people in 2008.The middle school-age population of the province from 2008 to 2030,continues to decline,then rises again to the peak around 2026 and then drops,in which the largest school-age population for 2026 are 3,297,800 people,representing at least an increase of 55.26 percent than the 2,124,000 people in 2011.The high school-age population of the province from 2008 to 2030, continues to decline,then increases once again reaching its peak at about 2029,and then drops,in which the largest school-age population for 2029 are 3,294,300 people,representing at least an increase of 55.26 percent than the 2,121,800 people in 2014.This shows that the school-age population scale of basic education at all levels will be a wave-type change in the next two decades in Hebei Province,and the margin between the peak and trough is above 45 percent in the number of school-age population.Later,this paper uses the "United Nations" method to predict the urbanization rate of Hebei Province,and then predict the primary and middle school enrollment and population at school both in the urban and rural area,combining with the enrollment rate and retention rate of school of all levels.The prediction results show that the urbanization rate of primary school enrollment in Hebei Province in 2008 will be 38.99%,and by 2030 it will reach 61.64%;while the urbanization rate at middle school enrollment in 2008 will be 59.45%,and by 2030 it will reach 80.62%;As the ordinary senior middle school mainly locates in cities and towns,the level of urbanization at ordinary high school enrollment will gradually tends to 100%.The study has shown that the population at school in primary schools in cities and towns will exceed that in the rural area in 2022 at the scale in Hebei Province;the population at school in urban middle schools has been higher than that in the rural area at the scale,and the gap will be bigger and bigger.The scale at school of basic education schools at all levels in Hebei Province will be a wave-type change in the next two decades,whose changes are basically the same with the changes of school-age population.Then,combining with the basic education scale at school of all levels in Hebei Province, according to the teacher-student ratio and the student scale,and using the coupling method, in this paper the quantity demand for full-time teachers and schools in Hebei Province is forecasted.The analysis results show that the quantity demand of full-time teacher and school for primary school will start to rise in 2008 in Hebei Province,and the rise range for cities and towns is larger,while the rise range in rural areas lesser.The overall quantity demand for primary school will increase,and further will exceed the number of existing primary schools.The middle school full-time teacher and school demand in quantity will begin to rise after 2012,mainly as the demand for urban middle school increases and by 2021 the demand will exceed the number of the existing middle school,while in rural areas the need for the middle school of full-time teachers and schools remain stable,and the overall number of middle school will reduce.The demand of full-time teachers for ordinary senior middle school begin to increase in 2015,before 2015,in Hebei Province,the demand for ordinary senior school will significantly decrease and after 2015 it will begin to increase,by 2030 the number of ordinary high school demand will be slightly lower than the existing number of ordinary high schools.Finally,the study proposes solutions for the basic education in Hebei Province according to the scale changes in the trend.Studies have shown that in the next 20 years,the basic education scale in schools at all levels will change with greater volatility,but volatilities in schools of all levels are not the same in Hebei Province,and it's necessary for us to make a concrete analysis and response for the specific situation.What we believe are as follows:Firstly,we must uphold the people-oriented idea,and reasonably adjust the layout of primary and secondary schools,and adjust teacher configuration reasonably;secondly,we should set up a flexible and scalable mechanism running.For example,basic education schools at all levels can use the teaching of "small classes" to alleviate the student shortage, and when the students increase,there will be no worry for the teacher shortage;Thirdly,we should use the existing conditions of adequate educational resources,and vigorously develop education services to further lighten the burden of home education.