Demographic Dynamics And Asset Return

The change of population age structure is the economic development of every country will inevitably encounter problems sooner or later.According to the life cycle theory,people in different stages of the life cycle of consumption and saving behavior will be different,thereby affecting the supply and demand for the asset,thus affecting the rate of return of property.Financial assets because of its important position in economic activities,the influence of change of population age structure is concerned.Most of the studies are asset allocation preferences of from the micro level,from the macro level of the financial stability and economic growth of,but there is little literature comprehensive analysis of these two aspects the specific mechanism of effect of population age structure on financial asset returns.Empirical Analysis on population age structure and asset returns have scholars,many studies especially focusing on the United States,the results is displayed between the two variable does not exist significant associations,or different models to obtain the conclusion is not consistent.Therefore,the mechanism of the theory part of this paper summarizes the changing age structure of the population affect the return on assets,and improved the typical overlapping model(OLG)to verify.In view of the different countries significant regression results are different problems,the age structure of the population of the capital gains effect significant degree is affected by the rate of change of population age structure.Therefore,the empirical part will be the United States,Japan.Britain.Germany.Canada,Spain six countries points to A.B two groups of countries panel regression analysis,which a group of countries compared to group B countries population age structure changes faster,the relationship between financial asset returns and the population age structure variables.The results showed that in a group of countries,middle-aged population variables on stock return rate has a significant effect,the young people and the elderly population variable is not significant;the 10-year yield rate regression results show that the three population age structure variables on the has significant effect,and the life cycle theory.Rate estimation and the significance of the magnitude of the coefficients was significantly higher than that of the estimation of stock returns on Treasury yields,that bond yields are more sensitive to changes in population age structure.Comparison of A.B two groups of countries in significant degree can be estimated results found that population age structure changes more quickly,the return on assets is more significant.At present,China is in a critical period of moving from middle income to higher income,while facing a rapidly aging population brings challenges.Therefore,in the short term,the government should actively promote the reform of the financial market,constantly improve the financial system and the social security mechanism,create a good environment for the transformation of economic development;in the long run,China's economy should be the transformation of the mode of economic development,population policy adjustment.Only in this way can China may successfully crossed the "middle income trap".