The Two-child Policy Effects On The Aging Of The Population Of Beijing

Family planning policy that has been formulated in our country in 1970 s, which has become one of restricted factors that slowed down the speed of increase in the number of young adults, and it has leaded to the aging population problem apparent increasingly. We will discuss and research on this issue in paper.In this paper, it combines the characteristics of the Beijing population development with "Two-child" policy, and focused on the effect of the policy for fertility and the structure of the population. Through the using of Leslie model and the analysis of the grey GM(1,1) prediction model, it have get the numbers and the structure of population and analysis methods to improve them finally.To model 1, first of all, it has to check the census data of ten years, and adopt Leslie population model. After considering the difference of all ages in mortality and sex ratio, it has divided the number of population into 20 groups, and analyzed the total fertility rate of women in each age on the effect of "Two-child" policy emphatically. After finishing the total fertility rate of all ages, it combines the one-child ratio with its childbearing willing and gets the new total fertility rate. Finally by using Matlab software programming and Excel in data processing, it gets the number of population of all ages from 2010 to 2050, and expresses my independent opinions.For model 2, it uses grey GM(1,1) model to predict the structure and number of population of Beijing in future. Grey prediction model is usually expressed as GM(n, h),while in this article n = h = 1 that the first-order grey forecasting model of single variable. According to check the census data in ten years of Beijing, it calculates the internal parameters, which can be gotten the formula of the total population in Beijing. Then, according to 2000-2009 population data of all ages of Beijing, it gets the internal parameters of all ages in grey prediction model and the prediction formula. At last according to the "Two-child" policy it predicts the next ten phase(five years is one phase) population of all ages in future.Finally according to comparing the prediction of two models, it gets the results about "Two-child" policy effects on the aging of the population of Beijing.