The Study On The Interaction Mechanism Of Urbanization, Agricultural Modernization And Population Aging Urban-Rural Inversion

Since the reform and opening up,our country's urbanization has maintained rapid development,the level of urbanization has improved rapidly,from 10.6% when our country establish to 57.37% in 2016,which means that more than half of our population lives in towns,According to Northam's theory of urbanization,China has been in the rapid development of urbanization stage,urbanization has entered a new stage of development.But,in the process of rapid urbanization,there is no sign of narrowing the gap between urban and rural areas,and The development of urbanization is obviously faster than agricultural modernization,and there is no better way to promote the simultaneous development of agricultural modernization.In the process of urbanization and agricultural modernization has arisen the population aging inversion problem between urban and rural areas,This has led to the development of rural areas in the face of more serious problems,it not only hinders the development of agricultural modernization,but also has a negative impact on the urbanization itself.Therefore,it is necessary to consider the problem of urbanization,agricultural modernization and population aging in urban and rural areas,making the three issues development coordinately of,this has great theoretical and practical significance on urban and rural development.Firstly,the present situation of urbanization,agricultural modernization and population aging is briefly described and analyzed,then makes a theoretical analysis of the interaction mechanism between our country's urbanization,agricultural modernization and the population aging inversion problem between urban and rural areas by means of literature research,and clarifies the interaction between the three issues,Then,the modified Todaro labor transfer model is used to analyze the reason of the interaction between urbanization.agricultural modernization and population aging.It is thought that under different expected income and cost considerations,the agricultural laborer will make different migration decision then will make different laborer migration ways,and then will have different effects on the urbanization,agricultural modernization and population aging themselves and the interaction mechanism between the three issues.And then through the method of analytic hierarchy process and other methods to collect the required data,making the empiricalanalysis to urbanization,agricultural modernization and the population aging inversion problem between urban and rural areas by using of Cointegration test,Granger causality test,Impulse response function and Variance decomposition and other methods,then analyzed the dynamic response relationship of the three variables and the corresponding lag time,and finally come to the conclusion that is consistent with the theoretical analysis basicly,It is pointed out that the pattern of population migration caused by the development of traditional urbanization in our country led to the population aging inversion problem between urban and rural areas in our country,which will hinder the development of agricultural modernization,and which also in turn will have adverse effects on the development of urbanization.Urbanization has a negative effect on the modernization of agriculture in the short term,but the development of long-term urbanization has a great effect on the modernization of agriculture.The development of agricultural modernization has a great impact on urbanization both in the short and long term.And finally put forward the countermeasures and suggestions for the coordinated development of urbanization,agricultural modernization and population aging inversion problem between urban and rural areas.It is necessary to take the new urbanization road,change the way of urban and rural laborer migration,reduce the cost of population migration,innovate the farmer's organization and promote the industrialization of agriculture development;enhance scientific and technological innovation and promotion,accelerate the transfer of urban and rural technology.