Study On The Interprovincial Population Outflow Of Central Region Of China And Its Impacts

Since the 21 st century,the scale of interprovincial outflow population of central region of China accounts for more than 40% of the total interprovincial outflow population,the research on it seems necessary and urgent with the expansion of the scale and growth rate on outflow population of central region.This paper makes a systematic study by using multiple macro data,micro data and research methods on three aspects: the characteristics and changes of interprovincial population outflow of China,the causes of population outflow and the impact on central region of China after the persons flow out.Firstly,the analysis on the characteristics and changes of interprovincial population outflow of central China is carried out by the descriptive method and the data derives from the dynamic monitoring data of floating population in 2015,all previous national census data and the national 1% sample survey data since 2000.The result shows that the scale on outflow population of the central region has been increasing,but the speed of growth has slowed down when compared with the nation.The flow direction of floating out population is of convergence,but this kind of convergence has a tendency to spread from the area of Pearl River Delta to Yangtze River Delta.The interactive relationship on population outflow between central region and eastern region of China has been strengthened.Secondly,the analysis on the causes of interprovincial population outflow of Central China is carried out by making linear regression model and multiple classification Logit model and both the macro aspect and micro aspect are included in the analysis.The result shows that distance,education investment and economic factors make the most obvious impact on population outflow of central China,while the medical condition,unemployment rate,urbanization rate,and transportation convenience is not obvious.Finally,the analysis on the impact to central region of China is carried out by making panel models which involve two aspects: economic growth and regional economic gap.The result shows that the influence to each province of central China is different,but on the whole,the population outflow has a negative impact not only on economic growth but also on the narrowing of economic gap between the central region and main area where flowing out persons of central China flow.The central region of China has a large population base and the economic development is relatively backward.The choice of flowing out is the consequence of pursuing maximum benefits for an individual.Continue to promote the free flowing of labors still seems necessary.And at the same time,more attention should also be paid on such problems as industry employment substitute probably caused by population outflow.The government should energetically play a role as the provider of public service,to increase the investment on education,medical treatment,infrastructure construction in central region of China,and take measures to help the central region to develop more products and services which have comparative advantages.The main purpose of this paper is to provide a deeper understanding of the interactive relationship between interprovincial popolution ouflow and the economic developing of central region of China,and then manage to promote the implementation of “Central China’s emerging strategy”.