The Impact Of Population Aging On Housing Demand In Beijing

Aging population. According to the United Nations standards when the population over the age of 65 accounted for the proportion of the total population of more than 7% or over the age of more than 60 population proportion, it can be called the aging society. The results of the sixth census in 2011 showed that 65 year old elderly population in China has increased from 7.9% in 2006 to 8.9% in 2010, indicating that at the beginning of this century, China has entered the aging society, according to the research and development strategy of pre research group of China's aging population trend test (hereinafter referred to as the subject group the aging of the population), by 2054, China's aging population will reach a peak of 34.9% (the proportion of the population over the age of 60),which also shows that the aging population will be a difficult to reverse the trend of China's population age structure in.Demographic factors with the housing demand has close ties, with the characteristics of the growing population of the old and the elderly housing demand appears, the scale and structure of the housing market demand will have a more important effect in recent years in Beijing has relatively strong demand for housing,has maintained a growth trend in housing sales and housing sales area the price, on the other hand, the city of Beijing in the aging degree is higher than the national average, Beijing in 2015 the proportion of the population over 60 is about 15.6%, is expected to reach 29.29% in 2030,according to the previous research, the elderly population dependency ratio with the housing demand is negatively related, but in terms of the status of Beijing housing market the negative impact of the aging population, has not yet appeared, this is because the influence factors of housing demand is more complex, in addition to the interest rate and the market is expected to market Factors, dependency ratio of population and urbanization, family size and other demographic factors will have an impact on housing demand, while the aging population often in conjunction with the above factors of interactions, so the actual effect of aging is offset by other factors, which offset by urbanization is the most significant, and as Beijing China's Northern city of the pole, in recent years a large influx of foreign population, a guarantee of housing demand growth, on the other hand, the labor force of Beijing machinery slowed the growth of the aging of the housing market. Therefore, combined with the background of urbanization, the study of the impact of aging on housing demand in Beijing has a strong practical significance.Specifically, this paper will first present situation and characteristics of Beijing's aging research and combing the demographic factors, and the related theories of housing demand were analysed. Then the Beijing city statistical yearbook data correlation analysis, and according to the particularity of the aging population in Beijing, according to the analysis of the special housing needs, and then according to the empirical results and conclusions, put forward the corresponding policy. This paper is divided into six chapters:Chapter 1: introduction. This chapter is divided into two parts, the first part introduces the research background, puts forward research questions and research perspective, clear the theoretical significance and practical significance of the study. Then put forward the research ideas,research framework and the basic content of the study, introduced the main research methods. Finally, this paper points out the possible innovation. The second part of the literature review. Firstly, several basic theories related to the research topic are reviewed. Secondly, the paper reviews the literature on the impact of aging on housing demand from two aspects: foreign and domestic.The second chapter: analysis of the status quo of Beijing City aging.The growthand structural characteristics of the number of aging population in Beijing city is described, and the combined impact of urbanization of migrant population on aging in Beijing, introduces the development trend of population aging in Beijing city and features.The third chapter: the influence mechanism of aging on housing market. From the different dimensions of aging and Beijing housing demand relevance analysis, analysis of the aging process of urbanization combined with the impact of housing demand.The fourth chapter: Beijing old-age population pension form and pension housing characteristics. Firstly, describe the housing characteristics of Beijing household registration of the aging population,and then according to the analysis of the aging population characteristics of Beijing elderly housing demand characteristics. Resident resident housing demand for migrant parents. This paper describes the housing status of the permanent resident population and the migration of the parents of the permanent resident population, analyzes their parents'preference for migration, and then explains the housing problem of the resident population under the family pension model.The fifth chapter: the empirical analysis of the housing demand of Beijing. Based on the data of aging and urbanization in Beijing statistical yearbook, the influence degree of each variable on housing demand in Beijing was analyzed by establishing multiple regression model.The sixth chapter: summary and suggestion. Analysis of present Beijing elderly housing problems, due to the negative impact on the housing market has not yet appeared, the government lacks planning for the elderly residential market, elderly residential lack of a single type,some of the elderly residential construction time, function degradation,some foreign resident population by their own conditions, unable to solve with the housing problems from the parents. This chapter puts forward relevant policy suggestions: the development of the real estate market to consider the effects of aging, according to the needs of the elderly to promote a variety of housing types, promote residential development pension, public rental housing for the family pension pressure certain special care.In general, the influence of aging on the housing demand of this problem is clear, not only can provide policy recommendations for the government to guide the real estate business, reasonable, appropriate and timely development; also help developers accurately grasp the ageing effects on housing demand, do good export changes on housing demand,in short, long term analysis and planning, to save cost and avoid unnecessary waste and achieve maximum benefits.