Study On The Impact Of Population Structure Change On Housing Demand In Chongqing

With the change of my country’s population policy and the continuous improvement of the level of economic development,great changes have taken place in both the overall and local population structure in my country.Although the fertility policy has been gradually liberalized,the birth rate,the proportion of the population aged 0-14 and the child dependency ratio in China have continued to decrease,and the proportion of the population aged 65 and over and the elderly dependency ratio have continued to increase.question.However,according to the statistical yearbook data,my country’s residential sales area and residential sales as a whole are still on the rise.When the total population growth is not obvious,but the housing demand is still growing at a relatively fast rate,many scholars turn their attention to the impact of the population structure on the housing demand.In 2021,the total GDP of Chongqing will reach 2,500.2 billion yuan,the economy is developing rapidly,and the development of the real estate market is also eye-catching.With the continuous adjustment of the national fertility policy and the rapid development of the local economy,great changes have taken place in the population structure and housing demand in Chongqing as a whole and in various regions.On the basis of expounding the related concepts and theories of population structure and housing demand,this paper reviews the development of Chongqing’s population structure and housing market in the past two decades.11 research variables such as years of education,population mobility,urbanization rate,and commercial housing sales area,using panel data from 38 districts and counties in Chongqing from 2011 to2020,and constructing a fixed-effect model to analyze Chongqing’s overall and northeastern Chongqing.Econometric analysis of the relationship between population structure and housing demand in the three regions of southeast Chongqing and southwest Chongqing.The study found that the elderly dependency ratio and the average years of education have a significant positive impact on the housing demand in Chongqing,while the sex ratio of the total population,the per capita disposable income of urban permanent residents and the average sales price of commercial housing have a significant negative impact on the housing demand in Chongqing.influences.From a regional perspective,the population sex ratio and population mobility rate have a significant negative effect on housing demand in northeastern Chongqing,while the per capita disposable income of urban permanent residents has a significant positive effect;the old-age dependency ratio,average years of education and population The mobility rate has a significant negative effect on housing demand in southeastern Chongqing,while the child dependency ratio and the per capita disposable income of urban residents have a significant positive effect;Housing demand has a significant positive effect,while the child dependency ratio,the per capita disposable income of urban residents and the average sales price of commercial housing have a significant negative effect.According to the results of the empirical analysis,suggestions are put forward to promote the coordinated development of the housing market and the population structure in Chongqing: adjust the supply of housing units to meet the needs of families of different sizes,increase the multi-bedroom small and medium-sized housing,and adapt to the living needs of families with multiple children.At the same time reduce the pressure of their house purchase;developers should continue to promote the upgrading of housing products and increase the supply of high-quality housing to meet the needs of high-quality groups;in view of the current situation of the overall increase in the elderly population in Chongqing,it is proposed to increase the investment and construction of elderly care communities We will gradually realize the popularization of community elderly care services to remote districts and counties,so that elderly care services and elderly care facilities can benefit a wider range of elderly people;increase the supply of rental housing through multiple channels to meet the housing needs of the floating population,and first,expand the supply of affordable rental housing,In addition,it is necessary to carry out market-oriented revitalization of vacant public rental housing.