The Impact Of Demographic Structure On Stock Price

Since the 21 st century,along with the continuous renewal of science,technology and knowledge,the human society enters into an unprecedented high-speed development stage.The economics of all countries is developing rapidly,the financial capital market gradually improved.In addition to the traditional entity industry,resources,and other macroeconomic variables for the role of the national economy,the financial capital market plays a more and more important role in the process of a country's economic development.At the same time,countries around the world are experiencing a change in succession to reduce birth rate,labor population shrinks and ages of the population structure.Reduced labor force,aging intensifies,the disappearance of the demographic dividend makes economic development into a weakness,to some extent hamper a country's economic construction,and the stock market is often to be the “barometer” of one country's economic.It is generally believed that population structure on the impact of the stock market is indirect.Savings,investment and risk appetite among factors could have conduction effect on the relationship between the two.From the perspective of the above,the article is in-depth research to the population structure on the impact of stock price system,and will have certain guiding significance to the appropriate policy.At first,this paper is on the basis of predecessors' research to card the theory on the point of view of savings and investment from the life cycle and risk appetite,demographic dividend and asset pricing and finish literature review on three aspects,we find that existing research study more single countries than national study,the mechanism lacks the system analyzed,the mathematical model design absence of key improvements,etc.So we analysis of population structure on the influence mechanism of the stock price on the two visual angles of specific from supply(elderly population asset sales,technical progress,the youth entrepreneurship and labor supply,etc.)and demand(accumulation of savings,investment and risk appetite,crowding out of human capital,etc.).And then derive a model(population structure impact on stock price)based on the good four period overlapping generations model and c-d model theoretical.Finally build a non-equilibrium dynamic panel data model using 30 countries worldwide data from 1960 to 2014,and do the empirical test by system GMM method.According to the results,population structure on the impact of stock prices is not directly,but through the accumulation of savings,investment and risk appetite,labor supply and human capital crowding out the intermediate links indirectly influence the change of stock price,at the same time the mathematical derivation proved than positive correlation with the value of working age population.There is a significant positive correlation between the stock price and the working age population under the action of savings,human capital,income and others;there is a significant negative correlation between the stock price and the elderly population;the value of savings,income and stock price are related;“U” type related to human capital and stock price.All the above provides support provides experience on further study and also establish more perfect population and financial policy.So we suggest in this paper that: each country should perfect children policy and national social security system,transformate of the mode of economic development and perfect the system of financial development.Compared with the existing research,the contribution of this paper are:(1)in savings,choice of assets on the basis of risk appetite,both in the view of labor output,and other internal influence mechanism from the Angle of supply and demand two comb,at the same time will OLG to expand into four period;(2)according to the degree of financial development and the present condition of the demographic transition select multinational non-equilibrium dynamic panel data,at the same time add item in multiplication and distinguish between different virtual variables of the system of social security inspection.