The Study On The Spatial Effect Of Foreign Trade Structure On Regional Population Flow

Population migration is an important force to promote industrialization and urbanization in China,Especially in the current background of demographic dividend disappeared and the advent of an aging society and accelerated urbanization,the role of the floating population is more obvious.At the same time,along with the lack of economic growth in some areas,the rising cost of running and the cost of living,the return of the floating population is obvious in recent years.The main problem ahead in the cities of the cities is likely to turn into a way to drive economic growth into how to attract more people.As we all know,economic development is the most direct factor to attract the flow of people,but foreign trade as one of the"troika" of economic development is bound to have a diffusion effect and thus benefit the floating population.In recent years,China's foreign trade growth rate has gradually declined.However,in the context of a gradual decline in trade growth,it is more critical to increase the attractiveness of population movements from the trade structure.China's foreign trade structure is constantly optimized,but it is difficult to achieve breakthroughs,especially the regional trade structure gap is very obvious,which may provide a good opportunity for the region to attract population inflows.However,is it possible to enhance the attractiveness of regional population movements from the industrial structure of industrial products,especially in the manufacturing sector?Based on this,under the background of our national strategy of promoting foreign trade transformation and upgrading,this paper explores the mechanism of the foreign trade structure on the population movement from the three aspects of income distribution effect,industrial agglomeration effect and industrial structure optimization.For the change of trade development mode,to promote regional industrial transfer and industrial upgrading,as well as to promote China's population reasonable and orderly flow to provide a certain theoretical reference.China's participation in the process of globalization,in the context of continuing to broaden the breadth and depth of openness,the study of foreign trade structure and population flow problems,but also help to enhance the production factors in the region,industry mobility and allocation of knowledge and grasp.However,the theoretical and empirical research on this issue is very rare.In this paper,the foreign trade structure and population movement into an analytical framework,a detailed analysis of the trade structure and the mechanism of population movement,On the basis of the analysis of theoretical mechanism,this paper collects and collates the data of population flow in China's population census and the data of foreign trade structure of each province,and makes an empirical study on trade structure and population movement.First of all,there are a large number of literature that there is a significant spatial interaction between population mobility.In this paper,exploratory spatial data analysis shows that there is also a significant spatial correlation in the spatial flow of population in China.Based on this,this paper constructs the dynamic panel model of space measurement,analyzes the influencing factors and mechanism of population flow,and analyzes the influence of foreign trade structure on population movement.The empirical results show that,on the whole,the impact of labor-intensive industries on foreign trade structure is significantly positive,the impact of the foreign trade structure of capital-intensive industries on regional population movements is significantly negative,and the impact of technology-intensive industries on regional population movements is significantly positive.Then,the 30 provincial administrative units(except Tibet)are further divided into the eastern,central and western regions according to their geographical location,respectively,the sub-regional empirical analysis is adopted.It is found that there is a significant correlation between population flow on adjacent geographical space,the trade structure not only has an effect on the population movement in the region,but also has spillover effects on other regions.Without considering the spillover effect,the impact of trade structures on population movements will be underestimated.The direct and indirect effects of foreign trade on population movements in the labor-intensive industries in the eastern,central and western regions are positive,the direct effect of the proportion of foreign trade in the eastern region of technology-intensive industries to promote population flow is much larger than that of the whole sample data.The effect of capital-intensive industries on the proportion of foreign trade in suppressing population flow is also larger than that of the whole sample data,the impact of capital-intensive industries on exports in the central region is significantly positive,the impact of the foreign trade structure of the capital-intensive industries in the western region on the population movement is negative,but not significant,the impact of the technology-intensive industries on the population movement is significantly negative.In order to further verify the robustness and reliability of the empirical results in this paper,we also use the geo-adjacency spatial matrix to parameter estimate and effect estimate the spatial dynamic panel data model.It is found that the empirical results of this paper are robust.Finally,based on the above theoretical analysis and empirical research results,this paper argues that the foreign trade structure can not only promote the population movement in the region,but also can drive the economy adjacent areas of population mobility.Therefore,in order to promote the regional,industrial and trade development strategies,in order to fully consider the spatial competitiveness of the population,synergy and spillover,in order to attract more population inflow and compete with other regions,all regions will adjust the trade structure according to the local industry and trade development,eliminate the restrictions on the free flow of factors of production between regions,actively encourage the population to move freely between regions,strengthen the coordination of population policies,enlarge the regional cooperation effect.For the economically adjacent areas,through reasonable industry and trade planning and division of labor,to guide the population in the inter-regional rational and orderly allocation.China's eastern,central and western regions should be based on the status quo of industrial development to improve the trade structure,and then through the trade structure adjustment in the region to achieve the re-allocation of labor resources,In turn,trade structural adjustment can also lead to the adjustment of industrial structure,in order to achieve the industry and trade to promote each other,through a virtuous circle,at the same time,this kind of promotion has a certain spatial spillover effect in space,This kind of "trade to industry,industry to trade,trade to population,space spill" means for the future areas in the real background of how to "win the war" to win the important strategic significance.