| Since the reform and opening up,China's economy has made remarkable achievements,and urbanization is an important engine of China's economic development.With the development of the economy and the promotion of urbanization,a large number of people pour into the city.In 2011,China's urban population was more than 50%.Population agglomeration has become a trend in a small number of areas.The Communist Party of Chinese and the government are also paying great attention to the development and construction of cities.In September 2016,the outline of the development plan for the development of the Yangtze Economic Belt was formally issued.In 2017,the central government proposed the construction of the Xiongan new area.It is necessary to play the role of Beijing's radiation and promote Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei as a world-class city group with the capital as the core,and fully support the planning and construction of the Xiongan new area.With the development of the international city,the population agglomeration in the minority areas and the metropolitan area conforms to the historical necessity.The rise of China's economy can not be separated from the transfer of the surplus rural population to the city,the transfer of the population provides a large number of cheap labor for the city,which makes it possible for China to use the "demographic dividend" to develop labor intensive production.Industry,developing processing trade,it can be said that the agglomeration of population into cities is one of the important factors for China's economic rise.But the current situation has changed.China has become the second largest economy in the world.The total economic amount is huge,the world pattern is unstable,the trade war is four,and the golden age of developing the economy depends on the process of processing exports.In order to maintain the medium and high speed growth of China's economy,we must develop knowledge and technology intensive industries,high value-added industries,optimize the industrial structure,upgrade the industrial structure,and build an economic power driven by innovation.The knowledge and technology intensive industries pay more attention to the quality of the labor force rather than the quantity.The low human capital agglomeration may make the industrial economy fall into the "low technology trap".Therefore,in the period of economic transformation,the urban population size will restrict the adjustment of industrial structure and economic growth,and the population agglomeration has a promotion and threshold system for the economic development.About.Then,in the new era,will China's population agglomeration affect the upgrading of industrial institutions?What is the internal mechanism of population agglomeration affecting the upgrading of industrial structure?Based on these problems,this paper analyzes the changes in population agglomeration and industrial structure in China,and explores the relationship between the two and its internal influence mechanism,and explores this problem by using the macro panel data of 285 cities for 2004-2015 years.On the framework of the thesis,the paper mainly includes eight parts,the first part is the introduction of this article,the introduction of the research content and background,the definition of the core factors of the population and the upgrading of industrial institutions,and the research ideas and research methods of this paper.Finally,the possible innovations and shortcomings of this paper are briefly explained.The second part is the introduction of some basic theories that need to be applied,including the theory of scale effect,the theory of human capital,the theory of biased technological progress and the theory of space effect.The third part is the literature review,which mainly introduces the outstanding achievements of the research on the population agglomeration,the upgrading of industrial structure,the relationship between population agglomeration and industrial structure,which lays the foundation for the analysis of the problems.The fourth part is the description of the status and characteristics,mainly including three sections.Firstly,the detailed analysis of the situation of population agglomeration in China,especially the difference between the East and the West.Secondly,the analysis of the development of China's industrial structure,the trend of industrial structure upgrading and the spatial characteristics of industrial structure.Thirdly,the analysis that the population agglomeration may affect the industry.The problem of structural upgrading.The fifth part is the empirical analysis process.First,we construct the theoretical model,then select the economic variables,and make a descriptive statistics on the data sources and the overall situation of the data,then return to all the variables that affect the industrial structure changes.In order to ensure the accuracy of the results,this part also carries out the data in this part.A variety of robustness tests,including sub regional and sub scale,are used to test the robustness of industrial structure upgrading.The sixth part is mainly based on the characteristic fact description and empirical test.From the three aspects of the impact of population agglomeration on Industrial Structure Upgrading-the accumulation of human capital,the effect of biased technology progress and the effect of government intervention,this paper makes a reasonable explanation of the reasons for the impact of population agglomeration on the upgrading of industrial structure,and is based on the deviation of the population agglomeration.The mediating effect of directional technological progress will test whether population agglomeration will promote the upgrading of industrial structure.The seventh part is mainly considering the obvious spatial agglomeration effect of population agglomeration and industrial structure upgrading.Therefore,the spatial measurement model is constructed.According to the 285 City panel data,the dynamic change of China's industrial structure upgrading is empirically studied from the perspective of China's urbanization process,and the spillover effect and generating machine of the industrial structure are analyzed.Reason.The eighth part is the conclusion and enlightenment,including the conclusions and policy implications.On the basis of empirical test,this paper draws the following conclusions:firstly,population agglomeration plays a significant role in promoting the upgrading of industrial structure.With the expansion of urban population size,the force of population agglomeration has a strong and weak trend in the upgrading of industrial structure;in the regional pattern,the industrial upgrading effect of population agglomeration is effective.There should be significant differences,among which the population agglomeration in the central region promotes the upgrading of the industrial structure,while the western region is smaller.Second,the human capital accumulation effect,the biased technological progress effect and the government intervention effect are the important mechanisms to promote the population agglomeration.Third,population agglomeration promotes the biased technological progress by influencing the marginal output ratio of capital labor. |
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