An Empirical Study Of Population Age Structure And Trade Balance In China

Since 1994,China's trade deficit has turned into a trade surplus.Especially after the accession to the WTO,the scale of trade surplus has shown a trend of accelerating expansion.In the past twenty years,China's long-standing trade surplus has stimulated the growth of economy,but at the same time,it still has great risks.The latest data show that China's trade surplus in 2015 has reached 2400.7 trillion RMB,undoubtedly setting the highest value in the history of China's trade surplus.Many scholars have analyzed the causes of China's trade surplus in terms of international division of labor,RMB exchange rate,FDI and so on.Now some scholars have tried to analyze the influence of population factors on China's trade surplus.However,most of them are only from one aspect of the demographic factors,the analysis is not comprehensive enough,and the policy recommendations are inevitably biased.On the basis of the existing literature,this paper aims to explain the reasons for China's trade surplus from the perspective of population structure.In the macroeconomic model from the iterative alternating savings and investment perspective,discusses the relationship between population structure and trade balance,the dependency ratio of children's dependency ratio and the elderly dependency ratio as a measure of the age structure of the population index,based on the analysis of savings and investment issues,different age population came to the conclusion:in a rapid economic growth in the country,the child dependency ratio reduction will lead to a relatively high savings rate and a relatively low rate of investment and trade surplus.The rise in the elderly dependency ratio usually reduces the savings rate,which makes the trade deficit into deficit.In summary,because the total population dependency ratio is the ratio of child dependency ratio and elderly dependency ratio,the total population support will have a negative impact on the balance of trade.Then,based on the theoretical model,the introduction of trade openness and industrial development degree index data from 1985 to 2015,the Chinese population structure and trade balance for the construction of time series data,the co-integration analysis,through the Grainger test,the empirical results are consistent with the theoretical model.On this basis,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions for the future population structure of chinaIn this paper,the first part is the introduction of the background and significance of the topics are introduced,the concept of trade balance and population structure were defined,the dependency ratio(the child dependency ratio and the elderly dependency ratio)and the related concepts of trade balance and the summary of the related literature at home and abroad,combing research ideas and logic,on the basis of this the research methods and structure of the paper and put forward the innovation and deficiencies.The second part introduces the status quo of China's trade balance with China's population structure development and the status quo,expounds the theoretical basis of population structure and trade balance:according to the theory of life cycle-is out of savings and investment in different ages,through the national income identity transition to the trade balance,the dependency ratio of population and the relationship between the trade balance-the dependency ratio of trade balance will have a negative impact.The fourth part is the empirical analysis of the influence of population dependency on the balance of trade.Time series model is constructed by the annual data from 1985 to 2015 the unit root test,use the JJ co-integration relationship to figure,out the relationships among these varibles.And then explain the variables and the control variables all together,and finally made the analysis on the relationship,come to the conclusions.