Research On The Influence Of World Population Age Structure On China's Export Trade Structure

Since joining the World Trade Organization in 2001,China's export of goods has entered a stage of rapid development.During the period 2001-2017,the average annual growth rate of China's goods export trade was 14.32%,and the volume of goods trade in 2017 reached 2.26 trillion US dollars.At the same time as the scale of export of goods increased,the structure of export trade of goods continued to be optimized,and the proportion of capital-intensive products in the export of goods continued to increase.In recent years,due to the unfavorable factors at home and abroad,China's export growth rate of goods has declined,and the process of optimizing and upgrading the trade structure has slowed down.Specifically,on the one hand,with the tightening of domestic resource constraints and the disappearance of the demographic dividend,the potential of the growth pattern of the previous export of goods is difficult to further explore;on the other hand,due to the increasing age structure of the global population,the consumption of the world has increased.The profound changes in demand have also led to a lack of growth in the world economy to a certain extent.Under this background,how the age structure of the world population affects China's structure of exporting goods in the process of further opening up to the outside world is the main problem of this paper.Therefore,this paper firstly sorts out related literatures at home and abroad,and gives an overview of the age structure of the world population and the export trade of Chinese goods.Then in the theoretical part of this paper,an export model with consumer preference heterogeneity is constructed.Then in the empirical part,the country's population dependency ratio is taken as the country's consumer preference heterogeneity index,and the panel data of 178 countries and regions from 2001 to 2017 are selected for empirical analysis,to investigate the impact of the age structure of the world's population on the structure of China's export trade.The final findings suggest that an increase in the population dependency ratio of a country will inhibit the export of China's capital and labor-intensive products.This inhibition is more pronounced for capital-intensive products,and this conclusion is also true when the country returns to the income level.Based on the above conclusions and the actual situation,this paper proposes corresponding policy recommendations on how to expand exports and optimize the structure of export trade at the enterprise level,industry level and national level.