An Empirical Study On The Impact Of Population Mobility On Commodity Housing Prices In The Pearl River Delta

The economic openness of the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration is relatively high,the scale of population flow is also growing,the demand for urban housing is increasing,the real estate market is gradually active,and the real estate investment "boom" appears,which leads to the rapid rise of housing prices in some cities.On the other hand,with the continuous improvement of China’s urbanization level,the growth mode of urban population has begun to change from the natural growth of population to the mechanical growth mode as the main growth mode.In the Pearl River Delta,an area with a relatively high proportion of floating population,the housing price has become one of the hot spots that the public is most concerned about.Based on the panel data of nine large and medium-sized cities in the Pearl River Delta from 2000 to 2017,this paper uses the ordinary fixed effect regression(FE),two-stage least squares of instrumental variable method(2SLS)and generalized moment estimation(GMM)for empirical analysis.Through empirical research,the relationship between population mobility and urban commodity housing prices is verified,and based on the intermediary effect model,population mobility indirectly affects the changes in commodity housing prices in the Pearl River Delta through the demographic structure.At the same time,nine cities in the Pearl River Delta are divided into three categories based on the per capita disposable income of the cities,and a heterogeneous analysis is analyzed.Research has shown that there is a theoretically inverted U-shaped relationship between population mobility and urban commodity housing prices.From the current real situation,the two show a highly approximate linear positive correlation.Population mobility promotes the rise of urban commodity housing prices.There is a certain regional heterogeneity in the impact of population mobility on commercial housing prices in the Pearl River Delta.In addition,the test results of the mediation effect show that the population structure plays a partial mediating effect between the floating population and housing prices.Population mobility has an indirect impact on housing prices by acting on the population structure.There are regional differences in the mediating effect of population age structureand population employment structure between the floating population and housing prices in the Pearl River Delta.From the perspective of control variables,the regression coefficient of per capita GDP to commodity housing prices is significantly positive at the significant level of 10%.which shows that the economic development level of a region has an important impact on the housing market of a city.The CPI fixed-base index is significantly positively correlated with regional housing prices at the 1% confidence level.Interest rates are significantly positively correlated with housing prices in the Pearl River Delta region.There is no significant relationship between urban environmental conditions,the level of urbanization,whether to restrict the purchase and housing prices.Based on theoretical and empirical research,this paper finally puts forward a number of policy recommendations: First of all,we should pay more attention to the phenomenon of population mobility and improve the management level of the floating population.Second,we should speed up the establishment of a housing security and supply system that can meet the housing needs of the majority of residents.Finally,actively promote the "same right for rent and sale" system to protect the legitimate rights and interests of the parties in the housing market.