A Study On The Impact Of Population Mobility On Urban Housing Prices

With the reform of the housing system,China’s real estate industry has entered the stage of marketization,and its development has been very rapid,gradually becoming the pillar industry of China’s national economy.In addition,with the advancement of urbanization and the reform of the household registration system,population mobility has become easier and more frequent,and a large number of rural populations have moved to cities,and the size of urban permanent residents has continued to expand.In recent years,for the sake of economic development and industrial optimization and upgrading,cities have rushed to introduce relevant policies to attract talents.The influx of migrants will inevitably generate more housing demand,which will lead to an increase in urban housing prices.However,due to the rapid increase in housing prices,China has successively introduced various regulatory policies to curb the rising trend of housing prices,and stressed that we should adhere to the "Houses are for living in and not for speculative investment".Referring to the experience of foreign population movement,in the future,China’s population will continue to gather in large cities and regional central cities.The influx of population will inevitably lead to the rapid rise of urban population,aggravate the contradiction between supply and demand in the housing market,and bring greater pressure to the regulation of the real estate market.Based on panel data of 35 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2005 to 2016,this paper studies the relationship between population mobility and urban housing prices through panel data model,and then analyzes the impact of population mobility on housing prices of cities in different regions.In order to further understand the action mechanism of population mobility on urban housing prices,this paper also discussed the mechanism between population mobility and housing prices through 2016 dynamic monitoring data of floating population.The results show that,at the national level,the migration of population can promote the rise of urban housing prices.For every 1%increase of floating population,the urban housing prices will rise by 0.23%.The result of sub-regional regression shows that there are differences in the impact of floating population on urban housing prices in different regions,as follows:for every 1%increase in the proportion of floating population,housing prices in eastern cities will rise by 0.67%,in central cities by 1.48%,and in western cities by 1.06%.Moreover,we find that in cities with a high proportion of floating population and a higher income level of floating population,the housing price is also higher.However,the educational level of floating population is not significant.In addition,we also analyze the demand mechanism between population mobility and house price,the results show that in the case of other conditions unchanged,the increase of floating population accounted 1%,the sales area of commodity housing will increase by 0.27%,commodity house sales will increase by 0.69%,which shows that population mobility will affect the demand of urban housing and then the house price.Finally,based on the research results of this paper,we put forward relevant policy recommendations.