The Impact Of Local Government Public Expenditure On Migration In China

Population migration is an important problem in the economic development and social stability. The research of this topic has been concerned all the time.This paper will focus on the analysis that whether the scale of public expenditure will affect population migration. In the past, the scholars have made the study that how income disparity between city and rural, economic development level and other factors will affect the migration of population, while there have been many researches on impact of population migration on public spending but fewer researches on impact of public spending on population migration, so the analysis of this problem can deepen the population migration theory and public goods theory. This article is based on this idea. First of all, this paper will summarize the domestic and foreign literature review and the conclusions of researches about this topic. Then I will make a descriptive analysis of the current situation of population migration and public expenditure in China and the eastern, central and western areas of China. After that the area is divided into three regions by using the measurement model to analyze the impact of public expenditure on population migration with the dynamic model of GMM and LSDV. In the meanwhile this is the innovation of this article. Finally, I will put forward some relevant policy recommendations according to the results of descriptive analysis and regression analysis.Based on the analysis, the following conclusion can be derived. Firstly, the scale of government expenditure is increasing and eastern area is easier to attract the immigrants according to the analysis of population distribution and migration.Secondly, from the perspective of government public expenditure level I find that the overall level of public expenditure in our country rises year by year and the level of public expenditure in the eastern region is the highest, in the meanwhile the development of the western region is very fast and exceeds the central region due to the influence of many factors and the per capita level is even more than the eastern region. Thirdly, the public expenditure has a significant effect on the population migration and the performance of the whole country, eastern region and western region are positive, yet central area is not significantly. Fourthly, there is a significant effect of salaries level on overall country and central and western areas while eastern area is opposite, in the meantime population density has a strong negative correlation in all areas and the GDP growth rate is not significant in every region. Fifthly, thepopulation migration exists an inertia.Based on the above conclusions, this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations: Firstly, the central government should pay close attention to the difference between the supply of public services in Eastern, central and western areas and improve the quality of life of the residents in different regions. Secondly, the government can take advantage of difference in sensitivity of local public expenditure on the scale of population migration and take corresponding measures with their own objectives. Thirdly, the government should clarify its functions. Fourth, the government should pay attention to the public expenditure and the restriction rules under dualistic urban-rural structure. Fifthly, the government should pay attention to the time when the government uses the scale of local expenditure to guide the population migration.