The Influence And Predict To China's Goods Exports Of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area

With the development of globalization and regional integration for economics,China-ASEAN free trade area is China's first response to this trend to join a free trade area.For the national level,it is not only conducive to bilateral economic trade,but also help to consolidate the friendly relations in politics;For the corporate and individual level,the partners will form a huge market which can benefit both producers and consumers.CAFTA has played an active role since its preparation,but facing to the transformation of the world economic and domestic economic structure,the existing CAFTA rules still need to improve.In this paper,the key point is analyzing the impact of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area to Chinese exports.First,introducing CAFTA construction process,explaining global economic situation after crisis in 2008 and the current China's foreign trade status "new normal" situation.In the interpretation of the CAFTA on China's export trade effect,the paper has made the theoretical and empirical analysis on the conduct of trade creation effect and the trade diversion effect,the empirical part has used the gravity model of trade to verify.China has put forward the policy of "one belt and one road",no matter in the geographic location or in the partner relations,CAFTA will play an important role.Therefore,this paper introduces the "one belt and one road" and forecasts the potential of CAFTA to China's export trade.Although CAFTA has achieved remarkable results in the last several years,but it still have some problems and defects.Finally,the paper analyzes the current lack of CAFTA and make recommendations accordingly.