Study On The Development Risk Of Tourism Real Estate Projects

In recent years,China's economy has been growing at an alarming speed.With the economic growth,people's living standard has been gradually improved,and people's consumption concept has been quietly changed.Nowadays,people no longer just make money and save money,but also start to consume and enjoy.During the holidays,most people will take part of their savings to travel on vacation to relax themselves,enjoy life,and release themselves from the stressful work.At this time,people's requirements will be imperceptibly improved,the requirements for infrastructure become higher,the requirements for services,the requirements for comfort,and so on.At this time,the traditional tourism may not be able to meet the needs of people,tourism real estate will emerge.This paper mainly studies and analyzes the development risks of tourism real estate projects.First,through reading and studying the relevant literature on development risks in tourism real estate and tourism real estate at home and abroad,it obtains the relevant theories of tourism real estate and the relevant concepts of risks.Then,it identifies the risk factors of tourism real estate project development.It mainly uses the checklist method and Delphi method to identify the risks,and identifies the risk factors of decision-making,economy,development sequence,market,society,management risk 6 primary indicators and 18 secondary indicators.Then the risk evaluation index system is established through the identified primary and secondary index risk factors,and then risk evaluation is carried out by combining the analytic hierarchy process and the cloud model fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.First,the weight is calculated by the analytic hierarchy process,and then the weight cloud is obtained by expressing the weight by cloud digital characteristics.Then the evaluation set is obtained through expert scoring,which is also expressed by cloud digital features to obtain membership matrix,and then fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is carried out,i.e.the weight cloud and membership matrix are multiplied to obtain the final comprehensive cloud,and the risk degree of the project is judged according to the obtained comprehensive cloud.At last,the rationality and feasibility of the evaluation model are demonstrated by an actual case(XX Style Garden).Through the study of XX amorous feelings garden,it is concluded that the risk of the project is in general risk.its main risk factors are management risk,market risk and development sequence risk are also general risks,social risk and economic risk are lower risks,and decision-making risk is lower risks.The conclusion is consistent with the actual situation of the project,which shows that the evaluation model is reasonable and feasible.The innovation of this paper lies in the use of AHP and cloud model fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to comprehensively evaluate the project development risk.Through the combination of the two methods,the subjective influence of human is reduced,and the fuzzy qualitative risk is quantified,making the risk look more intuitive,more scientific and reasonable.It is hoped that the research of this paper can provide some references and references for future developers,as well as some inspirations and references for future researchers.