Study On The Control Of The Social Tourism Carrying Capacity

With the advent of Experience Economic,visitors pay more attention to their tourism experience.Many destinations were developed over the past decade,but the low quality of tourism resource is not attractive.Furthermore,due to the imperfection of Vacation System,people have no choice,but to take a trip on holidays.They caused the famous destination’s tourist overflowing,which has damaged the environment.How to protect the quality of experience and realize the control of the tourism social carrying capacity efficiently are the primary questions in present.In this paper,we pointed out that the hypothesis of Limits of Acceptable Change evoked the unsatisfactory control effect of the social tourism carrying capacity.This theory deems the foremost status is perfect,but in the social system,the highest quality of experience is not happened in the moment of only a visitor in the destination.On this basis,we plan to improve the control effect through the usage of Digital Footprint.It contains two parts: one is to construct a model to realize the daily tourist arrivals forecasting,the other is to measure the quality of experience by Digital Footprint.By Ground Theory Approach,nearly a thousand tourist comments about Jiuzhai Valley National Park were analyzed,which was collected from the website of‘dianping.com’.After the process of coding,a tourist experience model was established,which contains five parts: sight,environment,traffic,consume and management.We compared the update velocity and the quality between different types of Digital Footprint,and select the online comments as data source.Then,we proposed a new data processing of the online comments,realizing the measure of tourism experience.On the other hand,Huang xiankai proposed a novel model for predicting tourist arrivals on basis of the Digital Footprint.Nevertheless,he did not estimate the forecasting accuracy of tourist number on holidays made the conclusions skeptical.After that,an improved predication model including the variables of holidays and weekends was built,which is based on the Digital Footprint and daily tourist arrivals in destination.By using the same data of Jiuzhai Valley National Park.,the forecasting accuracy was compared in four dimensions.The results showed that the improved model increases the prediction accuracy of tourist arrivals on holiday by 21.5%.The approach adopted in this paper can predict the number of daily visitors of Jiuzhai Valley National Park by using the early four days lagging data,while the previous forecasting method requires the data of a much longer period.This research has demonstrated that Digital Footprint was helpful to the control of the social tourism carrying capacity,through the improvement of the forecasting accuracy and the realization of tourism experience measure.It also provides a new perspective for the research of the social tourism carrying capacity.