Sustained Safety And Development Of Civil Aviation Based On System Dynamics

In recent years, the number of civil aviation transportation turnover increase greatly. The number of aircrafts introduced refresh constantly. However, the safety operational support capability of civil aviation can not be fully synchronized with the development of industry. The concept of civil aviation safety management, staff development, infrastructure does not match with transportation. The sustained safety of industry face enormous challenges.In order to understand and grasp the law, and conduct preventive regulation, a systematic analysis around aviation airlines, airports, air traffic control within the industry was conduct, identified four macro aspects of factors from the market, operation, support, safety. On the basis of a causal feedback relationship between the safety operation of civil aviation and market development, we constructed a dynamic model of the sustained safety development of civil aviation. The trends of transport turnover, the number of flights, civil aviation operational support capability, the number of unsafe events between 2005-2020 were simulated, without human intervention situation.Vensim software has been utilized for the model parameter estimation, structure program simulation and parameter program simulation, compared its overall impact on the system development level and the level of civil aviation safety. Structure program simulation results show that improving average capacity of the airport can increase aviation operational support capability, while reducing flight delay rate; Program parameters set three scenarios. In the model of national development, civil aviation flight sorties have a steady growth, but the growth is slow. Airline service capability are significantly lower than the actual demand. In the rapid expansion mode, the flight sorties are growing rapidly. But the average support capacity will reduce, and lead to unsafe events because operational capacity are insufficient with the increasing transportation. While in the sustained safe development model, transportation and civil aviation flight sorties have a steady growth. That not only meet the requirements of the development of civil aviation, but also to maintain a good level of safe operation. The simulation results can provide a reference for industry executives.