Risk Analysis Of Individual Housing Loans Of Commericial Banks And Its Prevention In Laiwu Agricultural Bank

In our country, the personal housing loan is an important source of information for each commercial bank profits, as a medium and long-term loans variety. Because of the real estate as collateral, small and scattered amount of reimbursement, it can be considered as one of the safest bank loans variety. In 2014, in Shandong province adverse balance of four major state-owned Banks personal housing loan has reached 1.36 billion yuan, the defective rate is close to 0.4%, some branch banks have reached 4%, showing the explosion and rising of breach phenomenon. Taking Laiwu agricultural bank for example, personal housing loan business has developed rapidly in 2014 accounted for 100% of solid loan growth, but the phenomenon of non-performing loans the latent period shorten increasingly obvious, loan number, amount increased amplitude. Poor risk management is facing problems of the lack of social credit system, housing agency mortgage registration, advance notice registration service lagging. Therefore, based on the problems encountered in the development of Laiwu agricultural bank individual housing loan, identifying the risk and taking measures are of great significance.This article selects Laiwu agricultural bank in 2003-2015, based on 3481 cases of personal housing loan data for research. To study the risk of default, from the perspective of the four index Settings, as the loan amount, loan term, loan execution rate index, and the borrower gender, marriage status, age, record of formal schooling of borrowers situation index, and the housing area, home values, the proportion of the down payment amount housing situation. We select the Laiwu city house price index to reflect the regional house prices. To study the above index impact on housing loan defaults.In this article, through descriptive statistics and establish the logistic multivariate regression model to test the variable degree of influence and explain, eventually get better results:the loan situation, the borrower, the housing situation and regional factors on the impact of default risk, influence the direction of the impacts the same as expected, may change the default probability of housing loans. Finally, give suggestions for China's commercial Banks:perfecting personal loan credit reporting system, correcting the understanding of the risk, the management of loans, promote the individual housing mortgage loan product innovation, design a variety of products, and strengthen the education of the business and political theory, improving the practitioners' political quality and professional quality.