Chinese Apple Juice Exports Factors Analysis

The exports of Chinese apple juice is $906 million in 2013,which accounted for 14.34%of the fruits' total exports $6.32 billion,but in 2012,the exports of Chinese apple juice is $1.144 billion.From 2012 to 2013,the total amount of apple juice exports fell rapidly,which has fallen by 20.8%,and the decreasing trend seems to continue in the future.Under this background,based on the theory of comparative advantage,elements endowment theory,economies of scale and trade theory,new trade theory and related literature review,this paper takes Chinese apple juice as the research object,which explore the influencing factors of the export,so as to obtain certain enlightenments on apple juice export industry's development.Firstly,this study describes the trade situation of the world's and Chinese apple juice,analyzing the reasons of the change for Chinese apple juice exports,thus sort out the influencing factors of Chinese apple juice exports.Overall,these factors include the external demand,exchange rate change,distance,competitors' yield,non tariff barriers,international political factors,human resources,product quality and safety factors,raw materials and the timing of the launch and so on.Secondly,this study selects some obtainable and quantifiable factors from the factor affecting apple juice export and then uses the trade gravity model,varying variables according to the study.The independent variables consists of the PGDP of import country,Chinese apple juice's price,output of Chinese apple,the distance between the two countries,import and export country whether or not to join the WTO,import and export country whether or not to join the free trade area agreement,the financial crisis and exchange rate factors,and the model mainly is adopted to analyze how these factors affect apple juice export.This paper utilizes the mixed regression(PA),fixed effects regression(FE)and random effects regression(RE),and observes the differences between the three methods' results.Then we compare the pros and cons between random effects regression and mixed regression through LM test.Meanwhile,we also compare the advantages and disadvantages between the fixed effect model and random effect regression through Hausman test.So we finally choose the fixed effects regression test after the two steps above.Finally,this paper makes the following conclusions:The enhance of ability of total apple supply provides a solid foundation to expand exports of apple juice.Economic development of target market countries and dynamic changes affects the export of apple juice.China's accession to World Trade Organization(WTO)has a significant impact on China's apple juice exports.Financial crisis of target market countrys has a significant impact on the needs of apple juice.Along with the improvement of the quality,the price rose and Chinese apple juice increase significantly.According to the above conclusions,several relevant suggestions has been put forward:Enhance the supply capacity of apple,and protect sources of raw materials for processing apple juice.Consolidate traditional markets in Europe and America,and develop emerging markets actively,such as Central Asian region.Use WTO rules rationally,improve the apple juice export capability of enterprises within permitted range of the rules.Exploration business like juice futures,avoid the risk of price fluctuations.Boot enterprises in apple juice processing to shift from quantity-oriented to quality-oriented,improve international competitiveness through higher prices and better quality.