Export Of Chinese Apple Juice To Russia

China is the world’s largest supplier of concentrated apple juice and exporter of juicedrink（Fred Gale, USDA.2010）5. Juice export trade plays an significant role in transformingChina’s abundant fruit resources, increasing farmers’ income, and expanding the fruit industry.In2011, the top five Chinese fruit juice export destination countries are United States, Japan,Russia, Netherlands and Germany. Due to the differences in resource endowments and thecomplementary nature of the geopolitical environment between China and Russia, Russia hasbecoming an emerging and growing market that booms China’s fruit juice export. In thepast10years, China’s fruit juice exporting to Russian experienced three fluctuations: namely,slow growth period (2001-2004), rapid increase period (2005-2007), alternately change period(2008-2011)6. On the other hand, after Russia’s accession to the WTO in2012, the tariffbarriers for Chinese fruit juice exporters to Russian market will be reduced and become morepredictable7under the WTO tariff reduction commitments on agricultural imports. However,non-tariff barriers may increase8.Apple juice is not part of the staple agricultural products, China’s export demand forapple juice is influenced by import policy, exchange rate, trade barriers, diet culture,preference and so on,and not very stable. Secondly, the appreciation of the renminbi, theworkers’ rising wages, these two aspects will cause adverse effect on our country agriculturalproduct exportor (Yao Zhi zhong etal2010)Apple juice however, the expansion of apple juiceindustry forcing exporters to explore domestic market as complementary market, particularlyemerging, growing markets such as Russia, to ensure the domestic apple juice maintain on ahigh price.According to the above background, based on the related research achievements of references,this paper using the data from related database(USDA and IMF) analysis Russian’sapple juice import and identify the main source of apple juice and its market share The papeusing Export Demand Model to explore the main factors which push Chinese apple juiceexport to Russia in recent10years. Constant Market Share (CMS) model is applied toexamine the trend of the fruit juice market by three aggregated export quantity, value ofexport and product characteristics are investigated. Based on this, the main factors will beidentified and their impact and trend of this impact on the fluctuation of China fruit juiceexports to the Russian market will be investigated. Finally, policy recommendations will beproposed for China’s fruit juice export enterprises exported to the Russian market.This paper using the market share of apple juice to recognize Russia import market ofthe main sources, the result shows that in2001-2011Russia’s main source of importer isstable.In global market, China, Iran, Ukraine, moldova, uzbekistan is Russia’s main importer.In those five countries, China’s exports to Russia is not only on growth rate but also on totalimports is far ahead.The next is Ukraine, the rest three countries’ average share is close to6.00%.This thesis uses the trade data (United Nations Statistics Department Trade Database)which can reflect the exportation of China’s apple juice to Russia’s market. Using the exportdemand function, this thesis introduces the price of apple juice which is exported from Chinato Russia, the price of orange juice which is exported from Brazil to Russia, the GDP ofRussia, the exchange rate and customs(a dummy variable) to explore different variables’influence on apple juice exportation. The result shows that the price of orange juice which isexported from Brazil to Russia and the GDP of Russia is significant; the demand resilience is1.835and0.566respectively. The other variables are not significant and their influence on thedependent variable cannot be verified. This thesis uses traditional CMS model to explore themain factors which influence the market fluctuations of Russia in terms of demand, structureand competitive strength from2001-2011, their respective extent of influence and thechanging trend. The results shows that the determining factors of the competitive strength ofChina’s exporting apple juice have their stages, and the positive significance of the structureeffect and the competitive effect on the China’s apple juice exportation is becoming larger andlarger.