Research On The Employment Effects Of Industrial Transformation And Upgrading In China

Employment has been one of widely concerned issues in our social-economical life.As the inevitable trend of China's economy in the near future,industrial transformation and upgrading is bound to affect the overall level of employment in China.In theoretical field,there are controversies in industrial transformation and upgrading affecting employment.Therefore,making an in-depth analysis of industrial transformation and upgrading's dual influence on employment can,on the one hand,bring full play to the positive roles that industrial transformation and upgrading play in employment.On the other hand,it can enrich related theories concerning industrial transformation and upgrading and employment.This paper consists of five parts: firstly,the introduction part elaborates the selected topic background and significance,describes the literature research both at home and abroad,defines the purpose of the study,arranges the full chapter structure and paper framework,proposes research methods and innovations.Secondly,it describes the theories of the industrial transformation and upgrading and employment.First of all,this part defines the industrial transformation and upgrading,employment quantity and the employment structure.Then it states the theories of industrial transformation and upgrading and employment.Thirdly,in view of employment quantity and structure,it states the mechanisms of industrial transformation and upgrading that affects employment.From the employment quantity point of view,around the industrial development,the advanced industrial structure and the industrial value chain upgrading three factors,the first section analyzes the mechanism of industrial transformation and upgrading that affects employment quantity.From the perspective of employment structure,around the industrial structure of employment,industry structure of employment and labor quality structure,the second section analyzes the mechanism of industrial transformation and upgrading that affects employment structure.Fourthly,from the perspective of total employment,on the basic of Chinese Academy of Sciences scholars' research about function of output and labor demand,the first section takes the industrial development,the advanced industrial structure and the industrial value chain upgrading into function and takes an empirical analysis by cointegration analysis,regression analysis.Then it draws conclusions.From the perspective of employment structure,the second section takes an empirical analysis by unit root test,cointegration analysis,regression models,error correction model and granger causality test.Then it draws conclusions.In the last,based the Grey Prediction Model the paper predicts the trend of industrial structure and employment structure of our country.This paper combines employment and employment structure to help considering the employment effects of industrial restructuring and upgrading,and presents more comprehensive results.And the conculsions are as follows: firstly,in general,industrial transformation and upgrading has a positive effect on employment.The advanced industrial structure is the same.But the direction of the industrial transformation and upgrading has a positive effect on employment quantity.Secondly,the upgrading of industrial structure does raise the proportion of the third industry's employment.And,the regression results show that the upgrading of the industrial structure has a distinct effect on employment of the third industry.But,the upgrading of the industrial structure has a negative effect on the employment structure of the first and second industry.According to the Grey Prediction Model,in the future,our industry will form a development pattern of “three,two,one”.And the third industry will be the main force of absorbing labor.But the effects of the third industry absorbing labor did not reach the expectation.