The Financial Risk Assessment Of Agricultural Supply Chain Based On Catastrophe Theory

In recent years,the agricultural supply chain finance has become a way to alleviate the financing difficulties of farmers and small and medium agricultural enterprises.But China's agricultural supply chain financial practice has just started,the operation process is still facing a variety of risks.So it is urgent to manage the risk.This paper puts forward the "financial risk assessment of agricultural supply chain based on catastrophe theory".This topic will be combined with the catastrophe series model and fuzzy mathematics to quantify the overall risk of the supply chain finance.It is also a step to remove the weight of risk factors,which makes the evaluation result more objective and accurate.And the catastrophe series model tries to seek to improve the accuracy of assessing the overall risk of agricultural supply chain finance and convincing.This paper sort out the connotation of agricultural supply chain finance,financing model and risk comes from the identification,and build the macro environment and industry status,the overall strength of financing enterprises,the overall situation of real property mortgage financing,supply chain financing,the 4level indicators and two 13 level indicators of agricultural supply chain financial risk evaluation index system.The mutation model of mathematical thinking used in risk assessment of agricultural supply chain finance,the risk state of agricultural supply chain finance as a complex system only output state variable,the risk assessment based on mutation progression steps are put forward.LongJiang bank of ZhaoDong,finally,the grain(ZhaoDong)as the core enterprise of corn industry supply chain financing model as an example,will build the risk evaluation model is applied to the instance of membership degree and its total risk,and aim at evaluation results risk analysis and control Suggestions are given.