| In recent years,with the continuous changes in global climate,natural disasters occur frequently,which has brought comprehensive,multi-scale and multi-level influence to our country.Gansu Province is located in the northwest inland.The region is sensitive to climate change,and it is the ecological fragile area in our country.There are many kinds of disasters in Gansu Province,which have a long duration and wide spread.The disasters of Gansu Province have brought great loss to people's production and social economy.Therefore,this paper analyzes the change characteristics and future trends of drought-flood disasters and earthquake disasters,in order to provide scientific basis for disaster prevention,the construction of ecological environment and promote sustainable economic development in Gansu Province.The characteristics of climate change were analyzed by using the linear regression analysis,Mann-Kendall test,IDW spatial interpolation and other methods in Gansu province and each partition.According to the records of related literature,the occurrence frequency and grade sequence of drought-flood disaster were analyzed during the historical period.The paper analyzed the characteristics and future trends of drought-flood disasters using SPEI and commensurability.The relationships between sunspots,ENSO and drought-flood disasters were discussed by using correlation analysis method in Gansu province.In this paper,the time symmetry of the earthquake disaster was judged by the method of commensurability.The trilateral spatial symmetry of the earthquake disaster was judged by the migration trend of latitudinal and longitudinal in Gansu province and its adjacent areas,each area and its adjacent area.The relationships between sunspots,the moon and earthquake disasters were discussed by using correlation analysis method.The main conclusions are:(1)In Gansu province and each partition of 1960-2015,the annual and seasonal temperature showed a significant increasing trend.There was a significant mutation of annual average temperature in Gansu province and each partition.After the mutation of temperature,the temperatures of Gansu,the eastern and western region showed a warming trend,while the central region was opposite.In space,the temperatures of the annual,spring,summer and autumn presented the spatial distribution characteristics of both high and low,the winter temperatures presented a gradual change from southeast to northwest in Gansu province.(2)In Gansu province,the eastern and central region of 1960-2015,the annual,spring,summer and autumn precipitation showed a decreasing trend,while the winter precipitation was opposite.The annual and seasonal precipitation showed a significant increasing trend in the western region.After the mutation of temperature,the annual precipitation was lower than that before the mutation in Gansu,the eastern and central region,while the winter precipitation was opposite.In space,the precipitations of the annual,spring,summer autumn and winter presented a gradual change from southeast to northwest in Gansu province.(3)The frequency of drought disaster showed the rising trend and change regulation of "decline-rise-decline-rise" in Gansu province.The grades of drought disasters were given priority to with partial drought,middle drought,severe drought disasters rarely occurred.The frequency of flood disaster showed the rising trend and change regulation of "rise-decline-rise" in Gansu province.The grades of flood disasters were given priority to with middle drought,severe flood disasters rarely occurred.(4)In Gansu province and each partition of 1960-2015,the climate change showed a trend of changing from flood to drought.The frequency of drought and flood disasters were the same in Gansu Province,the frequency of flood disasters in the eastern,central and western regions were higher than that of drought.After the mutation of temperature,the grades of flood decreased,the frequency of middle drought and heavy drought showed the rising trend.In season,the climate change showed a trend of changing from flood to drought.The frequency of drought and flood disasters were the highest in autumn,the frequency of drought and flood disasters were the lowest in winter.(5)The future trends were analyzed by using the commensurability calculation,butterfly structure and degree of structural system in Gansu province and each partition.The possible year for the next annual drought is 2016 and 2017 in Gansu Province.The possible year for the next autumn drought is 2017 and 2018 in Gansu Province.The possible year for the next annual flood,summer drought,winter drought,winter flood is 2017,2018,2020,2017 respectively in Gansu Province.The possible year for the next annual drought is 2017 and 2019 in the eastern region.The possible year for the next annual flood is 2017 and 2019.The possible year for the next spring drought,spring flood,summer flood,autumn drought,autumn flood,winter drought is 2016,2018,2016,2018,2019,2017 respectively in the eastern region.The possible year for the next annual drought,spring drought,summer flood,autumn drought,winter flood is 2020,2018,2016,2018,2018 respectively in the central region.The possible year for the next spring flood is 2019 and 2020.The possible year for the next summer drought is 2016 and 2019 in the central region.The possible year for the next annual drought is 2016 and 2017 in the western region.The possible year for the next annual flood,spring flood,summer drought,autumn drought,winter drought,winter flood is 2017,2016,2017,2020,2016,2029 respectively in the western region.(6)In the relationship between the drought and flood disasters and the sunspots,the drought disasters mainly occurred in the peak of sunspots,the flood disasters occurred mainly in decline period of sunspots.In the relationship between the drought and flood disasters and ENSO,the drought disasters mainly occurred in the period of El Nino,the flood disasters mainly occurred in the period of La Nina.(7)The possible year for the Mw?6.6 earthquake is 2017 and 2018 in Gansu province and its adjacent.In space,the earthquake is likely to the northwest migration.The possible year for the Mw?5.6 earthquake is 2020 in the eastern region and its adjacent area.In space,the earthquake is likely to the northeast migration.The possible year for the Mw>5.5 earthquake is 2019 in the central region and its adjacent area.In space,the earthquake is likely to the northeast migration.The possible year for the Mw?5.6 earthquake is 2020 in the western region and its adjacent area.In space,the earthquake is likely to the southeast migration.(8)In the relationship between the earthquake disasters and the sunspots,the Mw>6.6 earthquakes mainly occurred in the valley and peak of sunspots in Gansu province and its adjacent areas.The Mw>5.6 earthquakes mainly occurred in the valley of sunspots and the periods of sunspots decline in eastern region and its adjacent areas.The Mw?5.5 earthquakes mainly occurred in the periods of sunspots decline in central region and its adjacent areas.The Mw?5.6 earthquakes mainly occurred in the valley of sunspots in western region and its adjacent areas.In the relationship between the earthquake disasters and the moon,the earthquake disasters mainly occurred in the period of the first quarter and last quarter in Gansu province and its adjacent,the eastern region and its adjacent area,western region and its adjacent areas.The earthquake disasters mainly occurred in the period of the lunar month in central region and its adjacent areas. |
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